In short, the market seems to have completely and utterly absorbed the trade deal failure. Indeed, when we were told how a trade deal was absolutely going to happen, people agreed it would be uber-bullish when it did. And yet, now that it’s totally failed……….zilch. It’s become irrelevant.
One need look no farther than the VIX to witness this:
We have gone from the “shock event” of the China trade talks collapsing back down to a VIX of 14 in just a couple of weeks.
My spidey-sense is that it’s not going to be this painless. I am frankly stunned and how lackadaisical the market is being about this entire affair, yet as I look at the chart above, I simply don’t think it’s going to hang around at 14 forever with its thumbs in its pockets. Another shoe is bound to drop.