The Release

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Well, this is pretty much was what worrying me. If you watch me on tastytrade, I kept mentioning how the range was shaping up as a potentially bullish breakout pattern, and voila, here we are. All the pent-up energy that I’ve tinted below has been released. And right now one of the last barriers to lifetime highs is the Christmas Trendline, where I’ve drawn an arrow.


You can see the same thing with the NASDAQ 100…….


……which has been aided by semiconductor strength. In fact, even during the weakest moments of the past few months, the semis never violated their uptrend.


The S&P 500 tells the same story. The small bullish setup is complete, and with absolutely no news except for a meeting that’s going to take place in a month, the market is roaring higher, only a short distance from lifetime highs.


I won’t sugarcoat this: I’ve been in full-scale retreat mode this morning. I still have some positions, but I am probably the lightest I’ve been in a year, if not more. This is bad and requires a broad re-examination. The sad part is that my gut tells me this October trade meeting is going to wind up with a gargantuan nothing-burger, but we’ve got a month of jawboning to deal with, and it might not be a bad idea to hunker down for a while.