Phase Winning

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I’ve said it before, and I’ll type it again: if the present administration knows what’s good for it, it won’t actually sign any deal. It’ll just keep talking very, very slowly) for the next year, nursing Trade Talk Optimism the entire way. The worst thing that could possibly happen to this market would be an actual, sign, complete trade deal. Another tiny top has been aborted with an Optimism spike.


Another gust of wind at the backs of the bulls (as if they needed it) is financials, which have been breaking out. XLF has been pushing to lifetime highs on a daily basis, and KBE, the other big bank ETF, is also emerging from a range it’s been trapped inside all year.


The only wisp of a cloud in the radiant blue skies of the Bull Empire is that it’s just about time for volatility to return. The cycle of (a) spiking, (b) slowly calming down, (c) going sub-teens is grinding away to what, from a time cycle perspective, should be its terminus. Here’s the VIX: