The Strange Smell of Success – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Ascending charts have always made me uneasy, but I think there’s one that makes me more nervous than any other:

That is, the chart of Slope’s user base. This thing has been on a tear. What’s even more unnerving to me is the popularity of Slope’s premium services. In spite of (foolishly) choosing Marketing as my major in college, I absolutely stink at the task, but in spite of this, the number of new Gold and Diamond members has become awkward. I’m delighted – – absolutely thrilled at the records – – but unnerved nonetheless.

Why would this be? I guess I’m more comfortable playing the part of Unpopular Weirdo, since I’ve had a lifetime of practice at it. It’s a little bizarre to suddenly be the pretty girl in the room, even if it’s just for a short while. I suppose, more than that, I dread reversion to the mean. Surely my popularity means something horrible is happen to happen.

Personal neuroses aside, let’s take a quick look at these oh-so-interesting markets. Here’s what the NQ has been up to for about the past six weeks.

Simplistically stated:

The green zone was the lifetime highs in the market (which seems like a million years ago, doesn’t it?) when, ever so slowly, there grew a gnawing feeling that something bad was about to happen;
The yellow zone was the quick, initial reaction to the Covid-19 news;
The magenta zone has been the freak-out arena, where quadruple-point changes on the Dow have become the norm.

To that last point, I am “pure bear” again (although merely 42% committed), yet I didn’t even feel a think when I saw the ES was up 72 points in the wee hours this morning. Two months ago, such a site would have had me throwing up. These days, I just shrug my shoulders and go back to sleep. It’s the New Normal.

Here are the most interesting index charts. I think, in spite of the big gains on the ES and NQ as I’m typing this, illustrates the bears are in the driver’s seat.