The Strange Smell of Success

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Ascending charts have always made me uneasy, but I think there’s one that makes me more nervous than any other:

growth

That is, the chart of Slope’s user base. This thing has been on a tear. What’s even more unnerving to me is the popularity of Slope’s premium services. In spite of (foolishly) choosing Marketing as my major in college, I absolutely stink at the task, but in spite of this, the number of new Gold and Diamond members has become awkward. I’m delighted – – absolutely thrilled at the records – – but unnerved nonetheless.

Why would this be? I guess I’m more comfortable playing the part of Unpopular Weirdo, since I’ve had a lifetime of practice at it. It’s a little bizarre to suddenly be the pretty girl in the room, even if it’s just for a short while. I suppose, more than that, I dread reversion to the mean. Surely my popularity means something horrible is happen to happen.

Personal neuroses aside, let’s take a quick look at these oh-so-interesting markets. Here’s what the NQ has been up to for about the past six weeks.

phases

Simplistically stated:

  • The green zone was the lifetime highs in the market (which seems like a million years ago, doesn’t it?) when, ever so slowly, there grew a gnawing feeling that something bad was about to happen;
  • The yellow zone was the quick, initial reaction to the Covid-19 news;
  • The magenta zone has been the freak-out arena, where quadruple-point changes on the Dow have become the norm.

To that last point, I am “pure bear” again (although merely 42% committed), yet I didn’t even feel a think when I saw the ES was up 72 points in the wee hours this morning. Two months ago, such a site would have had me throwing up. These days, I just shrug my shoulders and go back to sleep. It’s the New Normal.

Here are the most interesting index charts. I think, in spite of the big gains on the ES and NQ as I’m typing this, illustrates the bears are in the driver’s seat.

slopechart COMP
Dow Jones Composite
slopechart COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
slopechart RUT
Russell 2000
slopechart SOX
Semiconductor Index
slopechart SPX
S&P 500
slopechart TRAN
Dow Transportation Index
slopechart XMI
Major Market Index

In any case, I want to extend a very warm welcome to all of Slope’s new users, and I hope my continued work is worthy of your patronage.