For those with bearish proclivities, it has been a rough stint since October 13.  If nothing else has been gleaned from the past 11 months, I think we can all agree that forecasting market moves based purely off what we believe the overlying macro environment is has not been consistently working.  The goal here is to provide some context around these moves – especially the latest – and frame it with forward looking data that may help guide us to short term market potential. 

First, let’s identify the things that we do know.  Top of mind:  1) We are still in a Quantitative Tightening regime, 2) This Friday is a Monthly OpEx, 3) Since the all time high, we have tagged the downwards trendline (orange dotted line on Figure 1) acting as resistance two times – in March and August.