On Saturday afternoon, I had one of my epiphanic charting moments and was immediately gripped with the desire to do a post for my premium members called Third Time’s the Charm. In it, I featured the /ES intraday chart and identified the diamond pattern that I believed was there.
I was immediately pelted by half-rotten cabbages and empty soda cans from the comments section. I was told quite plainly that:
- Equities go up Thanksgiving week almost all the time;
- Diamonds aren’t so hot;
- And anyway, the diamond wasn’t even really there at all.
The implication being that this is me:
Well, it’s too early for an I-told-ya-so, but at least as I’m typing this, futures are red across the board and we’re starting to chip away at that important lower-right trendline.
The year 2022 has been incredibly challenging and frustrating for bulls and bears alike, and I truly don’t have a crisp vision as to what will transpire between now and year’s end. I will say, however, that the world seems to be regarding the state of the economy and asset valuations with a tremendous amount of insouciance, and, ya know, I genuinely do not believe that a few months of a little bit of rough riding have miraculously cured the sins of the past three decades. Not by a long shot.
Because equity bulls are a lot like Elizabeth Holmes. For the longest time, popular, well-liked, and seemingly able to get away with anything they want – – arrogant through the entire experience – – until such time as judgment is finally hammered down upon them. In a metaphorical sense, the bulls seem to think they’ve served out their prison sentence already, and in my opinion, they’ve only been handed down their first indictment and have lengthy punishment on the road ahead.
Let’s just say if Thanksgiving Week doesn’t turn out to be the 100% assured free money zone that bulls (and, evidently, my premium members) believe that it is, it’ll be indicative of just how rotten this market truly is beneath the veneer.
