Well, folks, we’re down to the final 13 trading hours of the year. Unsurprisingly, the 99.9999% of the public which are permabulls has decided it’s time to get stocks “cheap” and have started buying them up. Also not surprisingly, the “call wall” at 3800 has held up like a fortress.
You can see how the Fibonacci Retracements, which have been our guide for the entirety of 2022, have done a yeoman’s job of providing support. My hunch is that on Tuesday, the first day of the year, there will be frantic buying – – just like THIS year – – since people want to get in when things are cheap. Yep.
In recent days, well-formed short-term patterns have presaged the moves. I’m bracing myself for a small counter-trend move here, and I’ll probably be trading little to none for the rest of the year.
A couple of days, I did a post about badly-beaten Tesla for premium members. I had called from a bottom “just under $100”, but I’m willing to take the $104 it reached as “close enough.” It’s possible that the actual target, which stated in the post, might be reached in January, but if sentiment turns positive on TSLA, the rip could be curious (it’s up about 14% already).
Finally, by far my most “committed” sector remains energy, which has been in a steady drumbeat of lower lows and lower highs in recent days.
As we meander toward 2022’s finish line:
- My ETF account has puts on FXI, SLV, and XOP
- My main account has 30 positions with an average days until expiration of 131, and no puts expiring before March 17th
- I’ve got about 15% cash, which I’ll probably let sit until any start-of-year silliness is done.
