Another. Two. Weeks.

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As a person who has nothing but short positions right now, allow me to start with my list of “Hey, it could be a LOT worse” bullet points by reviewing the five personal portfolios I manage:

  • Portfolio #1 is entirely cash and will not suffer one penny of harm
  • Portfolio #2 is entirely cash and will not suffer one penny of harm
  • Portfolio #3 is 85% committed to shorts but at least has two positions, DOW and XME, which are getting zapped after hours so will help lighten the blow
  • Portfolio #4 is incredibly light with only a 48% commitment level
  • Portfolio #5, the options, is even lighter with just at 39% commitment

Make no mistake, tomorrow morning is going to suck for me, but the level of suckitude – – especially considering I got out of my SQQQ long (at a profit!!) and Bitcoin shorts – – is a FRACTION of what might have been. Let’s just say, I’ve survived far worse!!

This is all about the latest TACO, and it’s a doozy. Trump is famous for his “two week” delays, and, yep, we’ve got another one on our hands right now. Thus, the /ES is absolutely soaring………….

As is gold…….

Treasury Bonds……..

Whereas volatility, naturally, is crashing………..

And the energy stocks are falling hard as shown by way of XLE, one of my shorts……..

As is Dow Chemical (DOW), another short position……….

Before any bears out their commit bear suicide, you need to keep several things in mind. First and foremost, yes, this is a HUGE after-hours rally, but for the love of Jeffrey Epstein, keep the context in mind: this is doing nothing but pushing prices into a thicket of severe overhead supply. THE TOP IS STILL IN!

In point of fact, if I had a magic wand, I’d love to have NO positions right now and just go ape-shit shorting in the morning when optimism is at its peak, but Lindsey Graham stole my wand and ran off to Disneyworld with it.

I also want to mention that – – THE DAMAGE IS DONE. What has transpired over the past five weeks is going to have BIG and LASTING impacts in the global economy, inflation, and energy costs. It’s not like we Ctrl-Z the whole thing and we’re suddenly back to February 27th. All the death and destruction to date doesn’t suddenly become meaningless. This is going to echo for years to come.

Tactically, I have already done something which I do once in a blue moon, which is cancel ALL my stop-loss orders. I will re-establish them tomorrow after the open once some of the smoke has cleared, because I see what’s going on right now as very much a “reset.”

I strongly suspect we’re past the worst of this war business right now, and there’s going to be a bunch of silly back-and-forth in the weeks ahead which eventually peters out as Trump loses interest.

In the meanwhile, we’ll hopefully begin to focus on stuff like, I dunno, earnings, and things besides the Strait of Hormuz when it comes to equity price direction!

Watching assets rip in value after hours like this isn’t good news for any surviving bears out there, but in a perverse way, it actually is great news for all traders in general, because trying to make decisions based on what the next Truth Social posts is going to be is really no way to go through life, son.

See you in the morning. I’ll be wearing my extra-thick codpiece.