When I went to bed Sunday night, I figured it was virtually certain that I’d need to do a post on Monday morning that I was giving up on my Bitcoin analogy (and, therefore, short position). It was up thousands of dollars and seemed in no mood to slow down.
Honestly, people, the phrase “Michael Saylor was right” is a close second to “nuclear missiles are inbound” in the list of four-word phrases I do not want to hear.
For the moment, it seems I’ve dodged a bullet (or a missile) since the majority of the BTC gains above have disappeared. Far more important than that, the price gap was never violated. We’ll see if, in the end, this turns out to be the turning point.
As for the /ES, its breakout late Thursday night called for a measured move to about 7310, and it got extremely close before reversing.
As I’m typing these words, the /ES has brushed off overnight gains and is ever-so-slightly negative. We’re going to need a good slice under 7222 (and stay there!) to declare this a failed bullish breakout. Overnight, the /ES was generally down trending, and we actually did give a short, sharp spike below the breakout level, but until it stays stuck under that red line, there’s no time to declare this tiny, tiny victory.
My gold short position is looking pretty good, with /GC down a good, hearty 1.3%.
The small caps are also slightly down, and I’d like to draw your attention to the red trendline, which seems to be doing a good job as resistance.
What is this line, you ask? Why, it’s the Liberation Day Trendline! And it seems to be doing a yeoman’s job of keeping prices from raging higher, even though, by and large, equities as a whole are still behaving in the fashion of something with a persistent and unbeatable bid.
Getting back to Bitcoin, this is seriously a major decision point for assets across the board. If, for whatever reason, this sucker blasts above its flimsy horizontal resistance line, it probably means that all assets are going to go from Insanely Overvalued to Batshit Insanely Overvalued.
At that point, even the aforementioned “nuclear missiles are inbound” broadcast across the nation wouldn’t be enough to stop this stupid market from resuming its daily trek to lifetime highs.
