Trading, like life, is full of ironies. The one I’m faced with right now is that my most successful and consistent short, Bitcoin, is one I resisted for months (years, really) because I thought crypto was too volatile and scary.
Not so. It is far and away the most reliable and chart-friendly market I’ve ever seen. Bitcoin, a key short position for me, just keeps withering away precisely as predicted.
This isn’t just an overnight victory. BTC has burned off almost $15,000 in a matter of weeks, and I’m simply going to keep holding the position.
Just in the past few days, BTC has completed an H&S top, retraced to it absolutely perfectly, resumed the fall, and broken its trendline. Victory!
As for equities, I’ve learned to be hesitant in this clinically psychotic market of ours. I saw the headline this morning, “As Trump Says Iran Deal Coming ‘Over Next Week‘”, and I think to myself, “whatever.” We hear this goddamned lie every single day, and the market simply does not care anymore.
Yes, the /NQ looks like it’s ready to weaken, but fake outs are the nature of this market, so don’t’ count on it.
Some pockets, though, are working nicely, even in equity-land. ServiceNow (NOW), featured in my “Now, Now, Now!” post yesterday, is slumping $8 pre-market.
I’m a bit more aggressively positioned than yesterday at 103%, but I simply do not trust the short-term gyrations of this deeply disturbed stock market. The SPCX IPO is going to be a watershed moment, and I’m going to keep things mellow until it’s done.
