I've done plenty of analog posts in the past. For some reason, Slopers seem to bristle at analogs. I'm not sure why; I'm pretty good at them. My GDX and EUR/USD analogs have both been considered "brilliant"………"breathtakingly prescient"…..and "inspired." The fact I can attribute these quotes to myself should take nothing away from their gravity.
My well-honed eyes noticed another analog today with the New Zealand Kiwi cross-rate (NZD/USD). Take note of the 2007-2008 period, shown below, and the tinted areas:
Now observe the current behavior. Pay special attention to the trendline. Yes, the green area didn't carry nearly as high as last time, which to me only emphasizes how much lower the price will ultimately go.
If this analog is on track, the relative positive we are at now is shown in yellow below. The black line represents NZD/USD and, for reference, the blue line is the EUR/USD.
My conclusion, of course, is that everything is going much lower. Surprised? I didn't think so.
