There was a time, boys and girls, when the NQ being down triple digits before the market opened would have been considered a pretty big deal. Exciting, even. These days? Absolutely, positively zilch.
The problem I have with these otherwise cool drops is that every day for the past, what, 933 days or so, the bears get a little taste, a little tease of red, and they start to get more aggressive and then – – blammo – – Jerome gets back from the local Best Buy with a fresh batch of ink for the HP Money Printer, and up we go again. The NQ’s rise since mid-March has been relentless, brutal, and evidently unstoppable, brief dips like this morning’s notwithstanding.
To my eyes, what’s far more important and threatening to anyone foolish enough to still be trying to short this market (that would be me………) is the pattern in the small caps, represented here by the /RTY futures. It’s quite simple: break that horizontal on the upside, and the market is indeed “cheap” like everyone is saying (insane, huh?) Break the line to the downside – – and I mean truly break it, not just dick around a few pixels here and there, but truly smash the goddamned thing – – and we can finally get serious about a red September.
Keen observers of human nature have probably divined recently that I’m not exactly thrilled with this simulacrum of a market. One of the poisonous things about it is that it makes one too scared to hold on to any winners for the appropriate amount of time. Yes, I covered TSLA for a nice profit, but the notion of it being a “Buy” (in this case a “Cover”) at over $400 per share is still laughable.
In a similar vein, yes, I covered Overstock last week at profit – – good for me!! – – but in my heart of hearts, I know this thing is a dog, and a truly bold trader would hold this thing as it grinds its way lower for months and months to come, as it has done in every single instance of its history. Yet, I’m out.
Having said all that, I remain sadly but understandably light. I’ve got 40 shorts with a commitment of 106%. I’ve got 80 “waiting in the wings”, but as I said above, the market seems to delight in simply cranking things higher sometime in the day – – usually in the last hour – – so I have had the zeal pounded right out of me.
Back to work!
