The Risk of Premature Anticipation

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Given the joyous little dip we finally got in energy the preceding week, I am reminded vividly of late January 2020. If you’ll observe the graph of the SPY below, you’ll see that day after day, week after week, month after month, the market went relentlessly higher. Then – – finally – – we got a few days of selling! Glory be! I remember it so well, because I excitedly finally dumped my put options, garnering gains of 10%, 20%, and so on. Huzzah!!!

slopechart SPY

I, umm, don’t have to tell you what happened next. The market resumed its uptrend, I patted myself heartily on the back for getting the hell out of my bearish positions while I had a brief opportunity to do so…………..and then all holy hell broke loose. The “relief dip” illustrated above is barely even visible in the graph below, which shows the REAL drop that transpired. Patience sometimes really pays.

slopechart SPY

My point is that as nice as the gains were from last week (over 20%), I’ve got a hunch that this is far, far, far from over.