As I mentioned over and over (and over) again on my videos all weekend, my “ideal scenario” would be a recovery back to price gaps and then a resumption of the fall. Well, Part One seems to have come through in spades, as we can see this morning that all assets are a sea of green.
In particular, crude oil is roaring higher. I’m glad to have sold my XLE and most of my energy puts on Friday. Energy will remain my main target once we finish the bounce higher. Just look at that wall of overhead supply lying in wait.
The ES is also blasting toward what I am hoping is a formidable pattern of resistance. This is, so far, picture-perfect.
Selfishly, my main interest in IWM (shown here by way of the /RTY futures) since my largest long position by far are December IWM calls. We will have to see if there’s yet another leg up since this seems to be poised for a burst higher.
Although, during the weekend, there are no reliable indications of what equities are going to do, I have found crypto to be helpful (which trades nonstop). The recovery in Bitcoin and Ethereum over the weekend indicated to me that “part one” (the bounce) was about to come through, and indeed it has.
In short, my large portfolio (which is still all puts, although partly in cash) is going to get a blast in the face at the open, but that’s OK; those are all January and February puts. My smaller portfolio, which is entirely bullish right now, will have a good open. The gigantic question is whether or not Friday was just another “September 20” (AKA we’re just going to go to new lifetime highs at this point) or, as if my desire, whether we’ll exhaust this bounce in short order and set ourselves up for another, better tumble lower, cutting through Friday’s nadir.
