Bonds have had a staggering recovery over the past couple of months, as rapidly-ascending interest rates stopped in their tracks and started retreating. As I look at interest-sensitive charts, however, I have to wonder if the world of bonds is going to start a new leg down. Here is EMB (emerging markets bonds):
And here is the granddaddy of them all, the TLT:
We can also see this expressed by way of the ultrashort on bonds, TBT:
Not surprisingly, the US dollar index resembles TBT almost tick-for-tick.
If indeed bonds do start to weaken in a meaningful way, that will help the equity bear case markedly.
