Welcome to the post-tariff world!
Although I have the ironic reality of heading to the airport in the morning, right around the time the market will be opening, I at least wanted to get a post out to get a “hot take” from the futures markets following the mayhem of this weekend.
The /ES, not surprisingly, took an instant triple-digit plunge. It isn’t melting down, because there’s the completely predictable chatter about “oh, Trump’s just playing 8-dimensional chess, and this is all going to be settled in a few days. Goldman Sachs sez so!” I dunno. We shall see. In the little bit of time I’ve spent putting this post together, the /ES has already bounced 24 points above its low.
The FOREX market is understandably being thrown all over the place, with the EUR/USD taking a massive gap lower.
Likewise, the small cap futures, the /RTY – – which spent the entirety of last week grinding around in a fairly wide range – – has completely pooped its Pampers, with more than a 3% drop as of this composition (not even an hour into the trading session).
In sharp contrast to this, crude oil is roaring higher, since so much of our oil comes from our former friend Canada. I am hoping that my oil producer positions (DVN and OXY) don’t also go jumping. Mercifully, they fell hard on Friday, in spite of oil being stronger. It’ll be interested to see how the oil producers behave vis a vis the oil rally.
Bitcoin, still trading well above its actual $0.00 value, managed to drop many thousands of dollars right from the get-go. It fell almost $10,000 (!!!!!!!!!) from its peak Friday to the lows early on in Sunday’s session. The yo-yo crypto bros obsessed with this thing going to $1 million and beyond have mercifully STFU’d for the time being.
I’ve been around the block enough times to not get overly excited about this plunge. I mean, sure, I’m so short I could jump off a nickel, and I have so many bearish positions that I’m out of buying power.
Still, we now are under the thumb of – – how shall I put this kindly? – – a capricious federal administration, and it’s impossible to know when they’re going to do a 180-degree turn on this thing once Elon complains that TSLA has dropped too much.
For the moment, now, I’m going to wallow like a pig who really likes red slop.
Oink.
