I am tremendously excited about SpaceX, which comes public at the end of this week. There are many reasons for this:
- I’m a market addict, and this is one of the biggest financial events of our lives;
- The performance of this stock will have an outsized influence over the long-term trajectory of the Knight clan;
- There is a real possibility (although it’s being touted much too often for me to believe it) that the SPCX IPO will mark the ultimate top of this insane 18-year-old bull market
There are thousands of possible outcomes to SPCX on its IPO and even just the several trading days that follow, but I’d like to go on record with my worthless guess which is this: I believe it will open very late on Friday (after hours of everyone waiting) with a huge gain from its $135 offer price, and at the end of the day, it will be near its lows for the day, although it’ll still retain a meaningful pop from the IPO.
There are two “blocks” to be managed for the Knights. One of them needs to be managed for the long-term, and frankly I don’t even think we’ll be allowed to do anything with it for many weeks to come. So, it’s out of our hands. We could helplessly watch it crumble in value, much as CBRS has (we had no stake in that; I’m just offering it as an example).
The other “block” is minuscule in comparison but totally in my control. I’ve put in a request for 1,000 shares from Schwab (of which, who knows, I might be granted 1000 shares, or zero, or maybe even just two). If I manage to score that, my plan is, frankly, to dump it rather swiftly once the market opens and be rid of at least most of it by day’s end.
Of course, the nightmare scenario is that I’ll be lucky enough to pay the IPO price of $135 and it opens below that. I think the odds of that happening are close to zero, but if it did, good-bye Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs!
Anyway, I can hardly wait for the big day, and I’m looking forward to sharing it with you.
In case you didn’t see it already, here’s the video about I did about SpaceX, which is the most popular market video I’ve ever done by light years!
