If you want a sense as to how quiet it is this morning, look no farther than SpaceX. After blasting 50% higher during its first two days of existence, it is effectively unchanged right now. Meandering aimlessly, all night long.
It seems, I suppose, everyone is waiting for the Fed announcement and the debutante ball of Kevin Warsh. I’m not sure why anyone cares about this guy announcing no change in rates versus Powell announcing the same thing, but evidently, it’s quite the BFD, so everyone is sitting on their hands.
One mildly interesting chart is the Russell 2000 futures, /RTY, which is ever-so-subtly breaking down since its recent lifetime high.
The /RTY has been playing jump rope with its trendline for almost all of 2026, and I am short the IWM to attempt to take advantage of current weakness.
Fear, as you know, has left the building completely, as America’s glorious and absolute triumph over Iran (cough, cough, cough) has assured folks that Happy Days aren’t just here again, but permanent.
Oil, too, has dropped for the same reason, although I daresay that instead of plunging toward $10 per barrel, oil has likely hammered out a huge range, and we’re simply at the lower bound of it.
One other commodity of interest is gold, against which I bought January puts yesterday.
I’m coming into the day fairly aggressively short, but I’ve got the sense this could be a snooze-fest until Warsh shows up.
