I’m not feeling well today so I might go back to bed after I post this.
The cycle trend day yesterday delivered the goods, and after the bears failed to manage a gap down yesterday morning, that was a strong bounce off the rising wedge support that was tested at the close on Friday.
Today is the other and less common type of day that Stan calls at the start of the week and this is a V profile day. There are 70% odds that the market will make a decent move in one direction this morning, and then reverse that move mostly or entirely this afternoon. The V can go either way with AM weakness followed by PM strength or vice-versa. Not seeing much sign of that first move so far today. If we don’t see a decent directional move in the morning then there can obviously be no V.
SPX made it up to 2106.20 yesterday and rising wedge resistance is in the 2120 area. This uptrend could now fail at any time and a break of wedge support puts SPX into the topping process. SPX 60min chart:
NDX has now made a decent hit of the rising wedge resistance from the August low that I put forward in mid-October as a possible target. As with SPX there is strong negative divergence and the uptrend on NDX could fail at any time. NDX 60min chart:
The high yesterday was a possible uptrend high on both SPX and NDX. Both could still push a bit high but I’m expecting an uptrend high to be close and within a couple of days. After that we should see at least a strong retracement. My ideal day today would involve slightly higher highs in the morning that would be more than wiped out in a strong reversal this afternoon.
