The rising wedge from 1871 broke down, and we would generally now see a retracement of the wedge in the 38.2% to 61.8% fib range, in the event that we were not to see a full retracement of the wedge. After the break of the wedge I look for a reversal pattern to form and there are now well formed H&S patterns on SPX, NDX and RUT. All of these patterns have targets around the 38.2% fib retracements of this last move up.
The obvious next step is for these patterns to play out to target. Today is the other cycle trend day this week so there are 70% odds that either sellers or buyers will dominate the day. In the event that we have a trend day down today I’d be looking for a big gap down that did not fill the gap. If we see that this morning then we may well see a big move down today. SPX 60min chart:
NDX 60min chart:
RUT 60min chart:
Yellen is giving a speech at the open which is a big wild card today. Overhead resistance yesterday was at the 5dma at 2087, and in the event that we see a hard spike up on Yellen’s speech I’d be looking for resistance there again today. SPX daily chart:
Subject to this setup being drowned in dove guano during Yellen’s speech today, it strongly favors a decline here and I am looking for the move to obvious big support near the 38.2% fib retrace at 2023.
