I'm not really seeing much on ES this morning. We've just been chopping around uncertainly so far this week and that could continue today. I have some some trendlines on ES that are showing more short-term potential downside than upside so I'm cautious on the long side right here. If ES can break 1150 then 1170 looks likely, but that's still an if so far, and we are stalled under the SPX January high for the moment. Here's the ES 15min chart:
Looking around the world there are some big indices that don't look that bullish at the moment. On the FTSE we've actually been in a declining channel for the last couple of weeks. Currently the FTSE is in a small triangle and a break from that may give a direction for the next few days:
Unlike the FTSE, the EUR DAX futures chart hasn't even yet exceeded the August high. I'm seeing a rather larger triangle there:
One thing that is definitely making me wonder about the strength of this bull move in equities is the recent strength in 30yr treasuries. Looking back over the last year and a half there is no doubt at all that these tend to trend down when equities trend up. QE may moderate that effect to an extent and cushion the fall, but it has not made them rise at the same time.
It is strange then that long treasuries have been so strong in recent days, and I'm considering the possibility that these might be in a rising channel. I've put three possible resistance trendlines on the chart and the next peak should indicate which one is the right one.
As ever, the many silver and gold bears are being taken to the cleaners. I had thought that silver might find resistance at the 2008 high, but it was broken last week and if reached soon, I'm seeing channel resistance in the 23.75 area. If this move takes longer, and is as long as the last big wave up then it might go to 25.25 before the next interim top:
Looking at silver, we have a very healthy bull move going there. What is persistent strength in precious metals telling us? Only that precious metals look a better store of value than fiat currencies. Central bankers inflated a series of bubbles with low interest rates and easy money, and when that led to a crash, they have stepped in to fix the problem with even lower interest rates and a flood of money printing. Who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks?
Ben Bernanke has told us that he will print whatever quantity of money is needed to revive an economy already sick from repeated previous overdoses of easy money, and we all believe him. The bull market in precious metals may go a lot further yet.
