Dey's of course da PPT, da PTB, da masta plannas and da boyz. Full
Hubris '10, also known as Full Tout '10, the extension to Hope '09 and
Full Suck-in '09 proceeds on in its robotic way. Market watchers who
know what they are looking at shake their heads and think 'here we go
again'.
Last time we went this route it was 2002-2003 with '03
being the year I clearly remember thinking 'don't fight 'em, Gary…
roll with it'. In the wake of that came a website called 'but it is
what it is' (hey, it was not yet a cliche' back then) that resolved to
keep firmly in place the reasons that people like Comptroller General
David Walker were on high alert for systemic risk. But also, the name
referred in part to my personal inclination not to blame nefarious
forces for anything negative that befalls my investment stance.
It
is what it is and these pigs are flying a poorly sponsored stock market
higher, toward some targets that could prove terminal. But we are all
getting a refresher course in just how long and dragged out this
process can be. The economy has improved and the system is whirring
along here in Full Assumption '10. This speaks to the idea that nothing
was learned or incorporated from the crash. At least nothing in the way
of remedying our misguided belief in a system that is unraveling
slowly, over the course of years.
I used the 2003-2007 time
period to make some good money, yeh. But more importantly, I used it as
a time to remain conscious of the cracking foundation and to get my
house in order. Rational people will use the current recovery, stitched
together with sublime levels of new morally hazardous policy, to their
advantage – for however long it lasts – not to make money and be a
player, but to continue deleveraging and insulating themselves from
what is coming… sooner or later.
Oh,
this started as a post about the financials etf, XLF. Well, there's the
trend line, there's the 38% fib retrace and if the pig climbs yet
higher there goes my short on the financials. So be it… is what it
is. I am still making money and will continue to do so if the construct
floats higher, because I know where the real gains will be made going
forward. Just like in 2002 – 2007.
I know SOH is a bear refuge, and the 'recovery' has by no means proven sustainable and the stock market rally could end at any time up here in ultra high risk territory. But if they are able to spin another inflationary policy fueled mini bull out of this, net short will not be the way to go for a while yet.
