Pssst… come 'ere. Did you hear the one about the guy who's still
bullish the US dollar? Yes, he actually exists. No no, I am not
including the perpetually dollar bullish Prechter and Hochberg. They
are a given.
But aside from them, I heard a rumor that this
other guy actually exists. Fear not however Hope '09 participants; what
are the odds that this lone guy would be right against an entire
financial world on the other side of that trade?
Everybody from
government to monetary officials are stacked against the USD. Wall
Street and the financial establishment remain on the other side of this
lucrative trade as they pitch their wares to the traumatized public.
The gold bugs who think rising copper and oil is good for the gold
sector? They're on board and indeed, leading the charge. So why worry
about a dollar rebound?
Well, the dollar has done some terrible
technical work on the big picture, which certainly informs NFTRH's view
for 2010, but in the short term all I see is what could be interpreted
as a break from a falling wedge (not shown on this chart that is
already too busy), a 3rd day above the SMA 50 (for the first time on
this systematic and grinding decline), RSI and MACD looking good and a
technical target up there at around the SMA 200.
If we are to
get a #2 leg in a mini cyclical bull (in hope), the dollar will first
rise and correct this mess, and that one lonely bull would be king of
the world for a short while on a short covering rally in USD. If not,
AGAIG '09 (as good as it gets) will continue to terminus and our
protagonist of one will join the rest of the world in staring down Bob
Prechter. —Gary
