The mood out there is really getting to be something.
People with whom I speak – – - even really serious, doom 'n' gloomer types – – – are starting to have real doubts that the market will ever weaken in a meaningful way again. The tone in the comments section has become giddy (for the bulls; welcome back, Beanie!) and scary for the bears (I don't think I've ever seen the word "suicidal" used until last night). And TBTSNM's comment section has been pushed into an entirely different dimension, with physical threats and racism being hurled around. It's really ugly.
In early March, the cries from the bulls were the same: when is this going to end?!?!? Well, the shoe's really on the other foot, now. I think hardly anyone, even the most enthusiastic of bulls, expected the rally to come this far, this fast, with no pause. Even as I type this, before the opening bell, the /ES shook off the deficit that I saw when I went to bed to be sporting a handsome rise, and many of my stupid IRA stocks are showing pre-market gains in the low double-digits. More and more, that IRA junk has become my canary in the coal mine.
The folks over at Elliott Wave International do a good job tracking sentiment, and this graph (used with permission) caught my eye:
Notice how the percentage of bulls went from 2%, a never-seen-before-low, to 80%, in just a couple of months.
They believe – – and I agree – – that until sentiment gets into the nosebleed area of the 90s, this rally still has room to run. In the meantime, the bulls are going to keep running the show.
