Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Why a Short-Term Decline is Highly-Probable

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We witnessed another upside gap today and in my opinion the bears were handed a gift, at least for the short-term.

Most of the highly- liquid ETFs I follow here at Crowder Options have pushed into a short-term overbought extreme, with several actually reaching a very overbought extreme.

Typically, when we see this type of price action, that is an upside gap into overbought to very overbought territory at strong overhead resistance, a short-term reprieve is to be expected. However, if you recall, I expected to see  a reprieve after last Tuesday's large upside gap, but the gap in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (one of my positions at the moment) has yet to close.

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Market Moves Further Into Oversold State (by Andy Crowder)

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The market has pushed into one of the most short-term oversold states that I have seen in quite some time. Almost every ETF I follow is now in a “very oversold” state with RSI (2) readings below 5 and over half below 1 – a rarity indeed.

So, now is the time that I want to be aggressive on the long side, but only for a few trading days. Conditions like the aforementioned almost always work themselves back to mean-reversion and I want to be a participant when the short-term occurs. I already have several trades on in both of my options strategies and plan on adding several more over the next few trading days, that is unless we see an enormous bounce before the opening bell Friday, which I think is highly doubtful.

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Another Short-term Opportunity (by Andy Crowder)

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I am going to keep it very short tonight. I think my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion chart says it all – a short-term bounce (1-3 days) is imminent.

Yes, the market has pushed into a short-term oversold state and as a result, I have been trading like mad in both of my options strategies. As a contrarian, it is times like these that I feel most comfortable taking a position.

When the ETFs I follow have RSI (2) readings below 2 and followed by a gap lower in the market I am perfectly comfortable adding exposure through directional plays like calls and of course, selling bull put spreads.

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Know Your Probabilities (by Andrew Crowder)

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Do you think about probabilities on each and every investment/trade you make? You should.

 
A football analyst can tell you the probability that a team scores after entering the red zone.
 
Why? Because these probabilities matter and they are easy to figure out. They simply look at the data that is presented to them.
 
So, why is it that when I read a research report from a financial analyst they can't just simply tell me the likelihood that a stock will meet their expected price targets?

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