Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Trading Through the Volatility Drought

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(and Why It May Finally Be Ending)

For what feels like an eternity, options traders have been staring at one of the tightest volatility clusters we’ve seen in years. Premiums have been lean. The usual fat opportunities to sell risk have been slim. It’s been like sitting in the calm before a storm, waiting for movement that just won’t come.

But here’s the interesting part: that cluster is starting to spread out. If you pull up a volatility chart, you’ll notice the compression loosening. The market may not have broken out yet, but the early signs are there, and those signals matter for traders who’ve felt handcuffed by months of low implied volatility.

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Navigating DIA with Bear Call Spread

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The Dow Jones (DIA) has been on a tear, surging 5.5% over the past seven trading days and 23.5% since the lows, shaking off any lingering bearish sentiment…for now. Market indicators have swiftly flipped from cautious to exuberant, reflecting a rapid shift in investor mood. However, my focus isn’t on the market’s emotional swings, bullish or bearish chatter is just background noise. Instead, I’m zeroing in on DIA’s current overbought conditions over numerous time frames, which signals a potential opportunity to fade the rally using a disciplined, high-probability approach.

With DIA trading around $445.50 as of July 1, 2025, I’m eyeing a bear call spread with a 30- to 50-day horizon, aiming to capitalize on this overbought state while maintaining a margin of safety. My goal is to structure a trade with an 80% to 85% probability of success, exiting well before the August 15, 2025, expiration to lock in profits early.

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The Implied Truth

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Prepare for the Week Ahead

I can’t promise you’ll get rich overnight, but if you trade options and like learning without all the marketing hype, give The Option Premium a shot: The Option Premium

The Implied Truth weekly table offers a high-level view of critical options, volatility, and momentum metrics across major ETFs, equipping you with insights to spot high-probability setups in the options market. It highlights where premiums are elevated, trends may be shifting, and price extremes signal potential reversals, key data points for any serious options strategy.

Options trading is about playing the odds, not predicting outcomes. When implied volatility expands, opportunity often follows, if you’re watching the right signals. Right now, we’re seeing meaningful dislocations between volatility, momentum, and market breadth across sectors—creating windows for both premium-selling setups and breakout trades for directional traders.

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The Implied Truth

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Prepare for the Week Ahead

I can’t promise you’ll get rich overnight, but if you trade options and like learning without all the marketing hype, give The Option Premium a shot: The Option Premium

The Implied Truth weekly table offers a high-level view of critical options, volatility, and momentum metrics across major ETFs, equipping you with insights to spot high-probability setups in the options market. It highlights where premiums are elevated, trends may be shifting, and price extremes signal potential reversals, key data points for any serious options strategy.

Options trading is about playing the odds, not predicting outcomes. When implied volatility expands, opportunity often follows, if you’re watching the right signals. Right now, we’re seeing meaningful dislocations between volatility, momentum, and market breadth across sectors—creating windows for both premium-selling setups and breakout trades for directional traders.

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The Implied Truth

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Weekly Metrics

A Look at the Week Ahead

This table offers a high-level view of critical options, volatility, and momentum metrics across major ETFs—equipping you with insights to spot high-probability setups in the options market. It highlights where premiums are elevated, trends may be shifting, and price extremes signal potential reversals—key data points for any serious options strategy.

Options trading is about playing the odds, not predicting outcomes. When implied volatility expands, opportunity often follows—if you’re watching the right signals. Right now, we’re seeing meaningful dislocations between volatility, momentum, and market breadth across sectors—creating windows for both premium-selling setups and breakout trades for directional traders.

(more…)