Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

High Implied Volatility a Gift for Sellers

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Before we dive into the details, a quick note — if you’re an options trader looking for clear, no-fluff education, I invite you to check out The Option Premium. The Option Premium is my free weekly newsletter dedicated to helping traders of all levels make smarter decisions with options. Each issue breaks down actionable strategies, market insights, volatility signals, and premium-selling setups — all through a risk-first lens. Whether you’re building your first iron condor or managing a multi-strategy options portfolio using poor man’s covered calls, you’ll find something here to add to your trading toolbox.

If you’ve been following the market lately (most at Slope have) you’ve probably noticed a key shift: implied volatility (IV) has spiked across the board. Yesterday, I touched on how this high-volatility environment presents a window of opportunity for options traders—not by buying options, but by selling them.

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“But I Lost Less Than the Benchmark…”

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Why That’s Still Losing — and Why Individual Investors Should Stop Accepting It from Professionals Who Ignore Options

Before we dive into the details, a quick note — if you’re an options trader looking for clear, no-fluff education, I invite you to check out The Option Premium. The Option Premium is my free weekly newsletter dedicated to helping traders of all levels make smarter decisions with options. Each issue breaks down actionable strategies, market insights, volatility signals, and premium-selling setups — all through a risk-first lens. Whether you’re building your first iron condor or managing a multi-strategy options portfolio using poor man’s covered calls, you’ll find something here to add to your trading toolbox.

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Volatility Spikes

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Volatility Spikes: When Fear Overprices Options and Creates Opportunity

Volatility is the heartbeat of option pricing – when volatility expectations jump, option premiums jump with them​. A volatility spike usually means traders are scrambling for protection, bidding up the price of options (especially puts) to extreme levels. Essentially, investors caught in a fearful mindset become willing to pay almost any price for insurance on their portfolios. In such frenzied moments, implied volatility can overshoot reality: the options market’s forecast of future volatility becomes far higher than what actually ends up happening. And when implied volatility (IV) is higher than realized volatility, option sellers have an edge – they’re getting overpaid for the risk they take​. This is why veteran premium sellers often say, “sell vol(atility) when it’s high.” They know that once the panic subsides, IV will likely revert to the mean (a well-known tendency in volatility)​, and those overpriced options will rapidly lose value in the seller’s favor.

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Why Today’s Volatility Is Different

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(and How to Take Advantage)

We’re not in a crisis, but volatility is quietly making a comeback—and for options traders, that matters.

Traders are being reminded—some gently, some with a jolt—that volatility never dies. It merely hides. And now, after a prolonged hibernation, it’s stirring.

For nearly two years, the market lulled investors into comfort with a slow, steady grind higher. The VIX drifted. Spreads narrowed. Option premiums dried up. Selling premium in 2023 felt like wringing water from a stone—you could do it, but not without effort. But something changed in late Q4 last year. And since then, the shift has become increasingly hard to ignore.

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Winning the Wrong Way

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Winning the Wrong Way: Lessons from a Drunken Gambler

“Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose…”

— David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker

Most investors don’t lose money because they lack intelligence. They lose because they mistake outcomes for skill.

A few winning trades, a hot stock tip, or a lucky streak can seduce even the most rational person into thinking they’ve cracked the code. But if you’re serious about trading—especially options—you can’t afford to play that game. You need a strategy where the odds are tilted in your favor, not just this week, but over years of repeated decisions.

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