Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

As Goes the VIX, So Goes the Market

By -

I don’t have a trade for you all in this post, but I just wanted to quickly share the VIX and its tendencies for forecasting the S&P500’s potential.  First, I want to point out the uptrend line in the VIX right now.  I’ve highlighted the times when VIX has returned to those trendlines in the past year.  At most, price has returned to the highs during such declines, but once the VIX trendline is hit, caution is very warranted, especially since sometimes, that touch then launches actual sustained selling periods.

I made a minor mistake on the chart below.  You should note to ignore the first decline in each cluster because that was the decline that established the trendline before which none existed.  Before these trendlines were broken, there was always a meaningful spike in the VIX first.  This doesn’t always happen, but once it does, upside is the path of least resistance.

161019 - VIX returns to uptrend lines

(more…)

Daring to Be a Bear This Week (Trade Walkthrough)

By -

I’m making an adjustment to my posts from now on where instead of simply speculating about future market direction, I’m going to offer a trade idea and plan.  (insert customary disclaimer, educational purposes only, blah blah, I can’t make you buy or sell, use the plan at your own risk, etc. etc.)  So let’s get to it.

The Context: As some of us are painfully aware, the S&P500 has been making higher lows and lower highs since the low of September 12th resulting in a triangle-like pattern.

161009 - SPX

(more…)