Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bearishness Still Sells, But The Market Does Not

By -

I recently read a missive by John Mauldin wherein he makes an observation of what he is seeing from similar types of “analysis” of the stock market today:

“. . . a quick search of the usual suspects on the internet reveals a metric boatload of market analysts complaining about sky-high valuations, 8.5 years of bull market momentum, passive investing, over-concentration in cash-flow producing assets and the impending doom of a correction so massive it will clean our colons as well as our bank accounts.”

For those of you who read Seeking Alpha regularly, what percentage of the articles about the general equity markets have you read that have pointed to us being in a strong bull market and continuing much higher over the last 2 years? Based upon the ranking of the market analysts on this site, it would certainly suggest that most of the articles have leaned bearish, and, yes, I am being kind with that categorization. I mean, are these articles really necessary to explain to me that there are risks inherent in the financial markets? And, here I thought making money was easy. (more…)

The S&P 500 Is Headed Over 3000

By -

Note from Tim: In case it isn’t screamingly obvious, I did not write this post.

Many will simply read the headline to this article, and use it as support for their belief in the market striking a multi-year top right now. I mean, aren’t headlines like this proof that the market is overheated?

Well, the answer is a definite “sometimes.” You see, back in 2015 and 2016 I was writing articles with headlines saying that we are going to target the 2500SPX region. And, if you thought that those headlines were portending the end of the bull market, then you were clearly wrong. So, consider, maybe this headline is prescient rather than a contrarian signal.

(more…)

Dow Back at Record Highs – Where’s the News?

By -

By Mike Golembesky, ElliottWaveTrader.net

In early September I wrote an article that asked the question, “Is it back to buy the dip or time to sell the rip?”

Since the publication of that article, the Dow has moved up over 900 points off of the low that was struck on September 5th. So clearly the answer to the question asked early this month was that it was still indeed time to buy the dip on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

We now ask how much higher can the Dow go prior to seeing a significant retracement as we enter the final quarter of 2017? (more…)

The Recent Metals Action Is “Causing” Me To Change My Life

By -

I have made a ground-breaking discovery this past week.  It is so earth shattering, that it will literally change the course of my life, and may cause you to change yours as well.  Let me explain.

Maybe you believe that the stock market volatility was the reason the metals rose?  Well, the S&P500 is within 2% of its all-time highs, yet the metals have continued to rally alongside the market.

And, maybe you believe that North Korea is the reason that the metals have rallied?   Well, I have dealt with that issue last week, so I do not have to re-address it here again.  But, suffice it to say that anyone who has really followed geopolitical events will know that gold has moved in completely opposite directions during such tensions through history, and they will never provide directional guidance for the metals. (more…)

Does Your Neck Hurt Yet From The Metals Action?

By -

Reading most metals analysis in 2017 has been like watching a tennis match with the analysis going back and forth over the net between bullishness and bearishness.  As the market reaches its highs, analysts turn bullish, and as the market reaches its lows, analysts turn terribly bearish. And, when the sentiment of the market has reached these extremes, it has marked the point in time when the markets have turned.

As I have also tried to warn all year, anyone who uses trend lines as their primary method of analysis has been terribly whipsawed, as the metals love to exceed trend lines right before they reverse strongly.  This is one of the biggest reasons many have become terribly bullish at the highs (right before the market has reversed), and terribly bearish at the lows (right before the market reversed as well).  So, does your neck hurt from all this back and forth during this whipsaw? (more…)