I have made a ground-breaking discovery this past week. It is so earth shattering, that it will literally change the course of my life, and may cause you to change yours as well. Let me explain.
Maybe you believe that the stock market volatility was the reason the metals rose? Well, the S&P500 is within 2% of its all-time highs, yet the metals have continued to rally alongside the market.
And, maybe you believe that North Korea is the reason that the metals have rallied? Well, I have dealt with that issue last week, so I do not have to re-address it here again. But, suffice it to say that anyone who has really followed geopolitical events will know that gold has moved in completely opposite directions during such tensions through history, and they will never provide directional guidance for the metals.
And, maybe you believe that a rise in inflationary expectations is the reason that the metals have rallied? Well, the fact that interest rates have been dropping of late would clearly not support your thesis.
None of these are the reason the metals have rallied despite so many analysts claiming them as the cause for the metals rally.
But, I, Avi Gilburt, have finally figured out the REAL reason that has caused the metals rally. While you may not believe me, I am now absolutely convinced of the truth I have discovered in the metals complex. I will tell you that the metals break out correlates perfectly with this reason. In fact, I will go so far as to claim that I have finally found the Holy Grail for metals movement! Yes, this discovery will now change the course of my life, as well as thousands, if not millions, of other lives.
I hope you are all sitting down, as I prepare to explain to you my ground-breaking discovery regarding the true directional driver for the metals.
The REAL reason that the metals rally is due to the hurricane season heating up!! Yes, you heard me right, and this is THE reason the metals have rallied, and there is absolutely no question in my mind.
You see, the metals have been consolidating for most of 2017. But, on Monday morning, August 28th, GDX broke out of its consolidation. And, guess what happened over that prior weekend? If you guessed that Hurricane Harvey made landfall, then you guessed correctly. This perfect timing correlation clearly suggests that Hurricane Harvey “caused” the metals break out, and the fears about Hurricane Irma continued to push the metals higher this past week.
It is as “clear as day” that the metals broke out when Hurricane Harvey hit Texas. You simply cannot argue that correlation, so, it MUST be that Hurricane Harvey caused the metals break out.
So, please put down your books on economics. Put down your studies and reports regarding inflation. And, stop reading the news, because financial and geo-political events are clearly not the reason the metals have rallied. If you want to know how the metals are going to move, all you have to do from now on is to tune into The Weather Channel.
And, now that I have finally figured out the secret to what moves the metals, I will be taking off the next several years in order to obtain a degree as a meteorologist. So, my next article will not likely be coming out for another two years. I have truly enjoyed writing my articles for you over these last 6 years, but I will have to take my leave, and will hopefully see you in two years when I have successfully obtained my meteorological degree.
If you are reading this article, and are looking for pearls of wisdom from me, then I am going to disappoint you. You see, I cannot offer you anything better than what has already been said by Jesse Livermore, which so appropriately applies to where we now reside in the metals market:
“And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.”
So, now it is time to simply “sit tight.” All you need to recognize at this time is where the market cannot break below in order to keep the pressure to the upside. And, that is where you set your stops. So, again, right now it is simply time to “sit tight,” and enjoy the ride for which you have been so eagerly waiting all year.
This now brings me to the support levels to watch in the coming week. As long as the GDX holds the 24 region, silver holds the 17.40 region, and GLD holds the 126 region, we will continue to maintain a strong expectation that we still have higher to go over the coming weeks. So, I would not worry so much about the micro count. Rather, I would simply give the market room to run.
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.