Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Wasn’t The Dollar Supposed To RISE On A Rate Hike?

By -

The dollar has been one of the biggest contrarian trades I have seen in years.  Every time the market is so certain about the direction it will run, it does the exact opposite and often in extreme fashion.  In my last weekend update, I noted how we called the multi-year rally off the 2011 lows when the market was expecting the dollar to crash due to all the QE.  And, I also noted how the dollar has been moving down after the Fed has raised rates, despite the common expectations that the dollar should rise.

Some days, if you listen really closely, you can almost hear the dollar laughing as it moves “unexpectedly.”

The same has happened with the Chinese Yuan. Recently, China spent 1 trillion US Dollars (a quarter of their FX reserves) over the past 3 years in an attempt to prop up the Yuan. However, the Yuan still lost close to 14% of its value against the USD over this time period.  Moreover, our lead analyst of our Forex Service at Elliottwavetrader.net, Michael Golembesky, appropriately advised a short in this market despite the Chinese “intervention.”  In fact, Mike and I wrote several public articles on this potential trade.  And, as you know, he has been quite successful in that trade, even though most others in the market would not consider such a trade in the face of the unprecedented action by the Chinese government.

(more…)

What The Heck Are the Miners Doing?

By -

by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Feb 25 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  As the GLD and silver continued in their paths higher this week, there is no suggestion from price action that they have met the top to this current rally.  However, the lagging in the miner complex certainly has made many heads turn.

Now, I have always preached “each chart on its own,” and this is a great example of why.  You see, until this past week, silver was leading the complex, with the GDX not far behind it, and GLD bringing up the rear.  This “leader-board” is purely based upon the Fibonacci extensions which they have each struck during this last multi-month rally.

With silver breaking out through 18.20, it has now moved up to its 1.236 extension, whereas the GLD has only slightly moved through its .764 extension.  Yet, the GDX still consolidating below its .764 extension.  But, the fact that GDX has still not been able to break through its resistance has left it in a position where it can still pullback down towards the 21.50-22 region, but, clearly, that would not be my preference at this time.

(more…)

The Stock Market Is Not Even Close To A Major Top

By -

by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

The stock market is too high.  The fundamentals don’t support these heights.  This rally is completely “fake” because it has been “manipulated.” The market is in “nosebleed” territory.  We are in a blow-off rally. The market is about to crash.  Yes, we have heard it all for months now.  Maybe even for years.  And, such perspectives have caused many to miss one of the best rallies we have seen in years, as they expect the market to top “any day now.”

But, the simple truth is that the market is in the heart of what us Elliotticians call a “3rd wave”, and they are relentless and the most powerful segment of a 5-wave Elliott structure.   In fact, we have been within the heart of a 3rd wave since early November when we went against the common “market-think” and called for a strong rally to 2300 and beyond on the S&P 500 (SPX), even though Trump won the election.  But, it also means that we still have to complete waves 3, 4 and 5 before a long-term top is seen, as I have been noting since early 2016, which you can see in a chart of our market calls in the link below.

(more…)

Are You Still Waiting for a Metals Pullback?

By -

As the majority of the metals market seems to be awaiting a “pullback,” the metals market, like the equity market, has been quite stingy.  But, as I noted in my mid-week update, “by no means am I going to say that I “expect” more of a pullback to be seen, as the minimal number of waves are in place right now to support a break out in the complex within the next few trading days.”  I am still of the same perspective.

On Friday, I did an interview for a financial show, and prior to that interview, the interviewer me told me that most of their guests, who are normally bullish the metals complex, do not think that the metals are going to be breaking out anytime soon.  In fact, he was quite surprised when I explained to him that I see a set-up which can ignite a strong rally in the metals complex at any time now.

(more…)

Very Bullish Set Up In The Metals Complex

By -

First published Sat Jan 28 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  In mid-November, as most of the market was becoming quite bearish in the metals complex once again, I provided you with a path as to how the market can get even more bearish, and set us up for a bear trap, while I was noting that I was reducing my hedges:

In our Trading Room at Elliottwavetrader.net and in my live video sessions with our members, I have noted several times over the past weeks that the perfect bottoming set up would begin as the market recognizes a heads and shoulders pattern setting up in the GDX.  And, many this past week were pointing to this “perfect” pattern, which they view as setting us up for new lows in the complex.  In fact, it could be “too perfect” since the entire market seems to now be hyper-focused on how it is going to take us to lower lows.

But, my view was that this pattern could very well present the market with a head fake.  I was viewing a break of the neckline as providing more confidence to the shorts in the market, as they would likely then press their shorts.  However, I think there is a very strong potential for them to be seeing those shorts squeezed . . .  Those shorts can certainly provide us with the fuel to begin our 3rd wave higher.  While there is clearly no certainty in this potential, I have seen this happen so many times, especially when the heads and shoulders patterns looks “too good,” as this one does.

(more…)