Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold & Silver: How Much Of A Pullback?

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As I noted last weekend, silver has finally joined the party, and has completed quite a full 5 waves up off the lows, and potentially even more.  And, as stated last weekend, since everyone was looking for a pullback coming into this past week, the market did just the opposite and continued higher early in the week.  So, can we see more of a pullback in the coming week?

Well, I will say that a further pullback in silver would provide us with a really nice inverted heads and shoulders in the silver chart.  But, again, that just may be too easy.  You see, when the greater market sees the potential for any type of heads and shoulders patterns, especially bearish ones, they rarely play out as most expect.  Most of the time, they simply set up the bears on what seems to be an initial trigger of the pattern by a break of the neckline, only to see a strong reversal catching all the shorts by surprise as the heads and shoulders invalidates and turns the market up strongly.  This is what I warned about months ago in the GDX, and exactly what happened in the complex over the last month.

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Could The Miners Have Provided The Ultimate Fake Out?

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Jan 7 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  This past week saw a very nice move higher in the GDX and gold, but silver has seriously lagged, which does dampen any outright bullishness at this time.  But, let’s review where we stand overall.

Several weeks ago, as the GDX broke down below its .618 retracement, many were throwing in the bullish towel, and everyone seemed to adopt the “clear” heads and shoulders pattern presenting on the daily chart, while pointing to target levels below the January 2016 low.  But, it just seemed too obvious to me, and it seemed like the market was setting everyone up.

In November, well before we broke the .618 retracement and well before we broke the neckline of the seeming heads and shoulders pattern, I wrote the following:

In our Trading Room at Elliottwavetrader.net and in my live video sessions with our members, I have noted several times over the past weeks that the perfect bottoming set up would begin as the market recognizes a heads and shoulders pattern setting up in the GDX.  And, many this past week were pointing to this “perfect” pattern, which they view as setting us up for new lows in the complex.  In fact, it could be “too perfect” since the entire market seems to now be hyper-focused on how it is going to take us to lower lows.

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Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

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First published Sun Jan 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  Last weekend (Christmas weekend), I noted that set ups such as we have been seeing in the GDX usually lead to strong rallies which can see a 10% move higher quite quickly.  Since then, the GDX ran 19% from its recent lows, with Thursday (Dec 29) alone seeing a 7.5% rise. Yes, these divergent set ups can provide for powerful reversal reactions.  But, it does not mean we are out of the woods just yet.

In fact, silver still is quite weak, and gold has not yet convinced me either.  Moreover, one does not have to make this very complicated at this point in time when one views the daily chart on the GDX.  As many of you, as well as the rest of the market, have been seeing the downtrend channel we have developed in the GDX, we cannot gain escape velocity until we are able to clear that 22.50 region.

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Is It Time to Give Up?

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Is It Time To Give Up? by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Dec 17 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  When dealing with markets, one must avoid, as much as possible, emotional responses and simply focus on the facts before us.  Last weekend, I presented my “factual” analysis of the market, and explained why I have retained a larger degree bullish perspective.  I suggest you review what I wrote so you can understand how I weigh the pros and cons in the complex, and why I have come to the conclusion I maintain.  Moreover, within the analysis I have been providing for the last month, I have been suggesting that another drop will likely be seen in the GDX and silver, and this past week that has finally been seen.

With the drop this past week in silver and GDX to lower levels below the November lows, the market has just about completed the pattern I have been tracking to end this correction which began in August. As I noted during my mid-week update, the initial rally off the Jan/Dec lows took 8 months, and the correction has now taken half that time.  This is quite normal for timing on corrections, so there is nothing unusual about the timing aspect of the correction.

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Manipulators, the PPT and Peter Pan Send the Stock Market Higher

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

“You can fly, you can fly, you can fly” – Peter Pan

It seems that, once again, the stock market rally has taken most by surprise. Yes, the US stock market has been making new all-time highs, and everyone seems to be scratching their heads. In fact, I believe we recently even witnessed a Dow Theory confirmation of this stock market rally.

The common recent expectation was that a Trump win was going to crash the markets. In fact, when the market headed higher against a particular analysts’ expectations, he ridiculously claimed that the current equity market rally is a “manufactured rally” for the sole purpose of allowing big money to “escape the market,” only for Obama to then cause a big crash in the stock market before Trump’s inauguration in order to “hand him as big a mess as possible.” You just can’t make stuff like this up. And, amazingly, there are investors that follow this “analyst,” but clearly with a lot less money now in their pockets.

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