Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Projections for this Week (by George)

By -

Below is a chart of a section of 2006-2007. The patterns are very
similar to the ones observed over the last couple of months. A line
points to where we currently are.

St ll

Based on this and and recent price behavior (distribution), the path projection is outlined in
the chart below. It is in orange for clarity’s sake. The white lines
are all based on channels.

St 2010
The chart above projects: 1) a down trend for the first week of March
2) a bounce at 1076, when SPX closes a gap 3) a bottom around 1060-1068,
based on prices hitting an ascending trend line and 4) the sell off
will be over by payroll Friday at the latest, a common trend reversal
day.

At the end of this move, I expect the ISEE index and equity
put/call ratios to be at extremes that mark turning points. I also
expect a very strong rally, parallel to the 2006-2007 one, following this sell off. See earlier
posts in my blog for evidence supporting the thesis of a strong rally.

Have a good March, everyone!

KISS My EW (by George)

By -

One of Albert's many good quotes is, "Keep things as simply as possible, but not any simpler."

Well,
what I know about Elliott Wave is that 1) it is fractal and 2) the
pattern is 5-3. However, that is enough information to help me draw
some interesting conclusions.

EW SP2

The chart above says it all. Wave 5 has just begun.
Corrective Wave 2 and 4 are boxed. Both corrections were exactly 9.1%,
and both had distinct 3 wave patterns. As such, the other sell-offs
along this bull market, which arguably did not have distinct 3 wave
patterns, can be disregarded in the wave count. Another argument
validating W2 and w4 is that each has touched the major channel that
envelopes this entire bull market.

Here's the break down of the up-waves:

EW numbers

Note that W1 and W3 had nearly identical point moves. The average is
285. If you tack that onto the Feb low of 1045, the result is 1330. This price is in the upper bound of the channel that I have drawn in the chart. Also, 2 x 666.79 equals 1333.50. The bull market terminates at a 100% return. Picture perfect.

****
Note:
the speculation of a move to 1330 is fun and elegant, but I do not give
it too much weight. It's possible, but I currently think 1240-1275 will
be the top. However, the critical thesis in the argument above is that
the final up-wave of the bull market has just begun.

You can find other analyses of mine at White Magic & Its Exposure