Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Dollar Index Positioned Ominously

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The Dollar Index (DXY) is positioned ominously.  It is pressing towards another confrontation with its flattening 200-Day EMA, now at 96.75, heading into tomorrow’s ECB Meeting when Draghi is expected to acknowledge the need for more stimulus and/or negative rates.

Shouldn’t we think that the Dollar Index would exhibit a more buoyant set-up if the ECB continues to put pressure on rates while the Fed leaves another RATE HIKE on its table?

This is counter-intuitive.

Nonetheless, if DXY heads lower, breaks its 200-Day EMA, and presses towards a retest of the Feb 11 low at 95.24, the year-long topping formation will roll over into a much more serious and consequential set-up.

Oil Under Pressure

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Heading into the afternoon session, it is Oil that takes the spotlight, now down 4.7% from this morning’s 4-week recovery-rally high at $38.39– and pointed still-lower towards the $36.00-$35.50 support zone. ES (Emini S&P 500) is under pressure too, but unlike Oil, has not inflicted serious technical damage to its 4-week uptrend (yet). To do so, ES must break and sustain below 1975.00, which will trigger lower projections to 1950/45 (quickly).

full-My0mnLXZSGzaYRHn3mccWOriginally published on MPTrader.com by Mike Paulenoff.

Flirting with Major Support

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If it looks like a top, and acts like a top, and the Fed is not actively and overtly buying assets, then it should be a TOP in the SPX.

As we speak, the S&P 500 (SPX) is bearing down on its prior low at 1812.29 from Jan 20, which if violated and sustained, will trigger a next downside target zone of 1750/40.

More importantly, however, if such a scenario begins to unfold, then SPX will be on a larger downside path that has a trajectory towards 1580/40, thereafter.

At this juncture, only a sharp recovery rally that hurdles and sustains above 1900 will begin to neutralize Jan-Feb damage.

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Originally published at MPTrader.com.

Yen Breaks Out

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Patience certainly has been a virtue in CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), but alas, the last few sessions of straight-up price action appears to be the upside breakout from an 18-month bottom formation that has unleashed significant upside potential for the YEN, that projects to 85 and then possibly to 88.

Let’s notice that the 50-Day EMA has crossed above the 200-Day EMA– for the first time since Oct 2012!

If FXY (YEN vs. USD) climbs to its potential, then it will represent investor repudiation of BOJ stimulus policy in particular, and perhaps Central Bank QE efforts in general as a remedial mechanism to foster growth and inflation.

At this juncture, only a sustained press below 81.60 will begin to weaken the current bullish set-up.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Canadian Dollar Points to Reversal in Crude

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One signal that Crude Oil could be putting in a significant low is being flashed by the Canadian Dollar, which has reversed from its plunge versus the Dollar.

Let’s notice on the lower chart that USD/CAD rocketed through its upper-channel boundary line one week ago, followed-through to the upside as Oil plunged beneath $30, but has reversed sharply (USD/CAD) from nearly 1.47 to 1.42 (CAD has strengthened)– and has pressed back inside of the upper-channel line… suggesting that Oil could be poised for a pop to $30-$31 in the upcoming hours.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.