Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

WTI Climbs Ahead of the OPEC Meeting

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The Feb-Mar Oil advance from 26.05 to 41.90 inflicted important and consequential damage to the intermediate-term downtrend from the June 2014 high at 107.73 when the price structure thrust above 35.00 on April 4.

Weakness off of the March high successfully tested the April 4 breakout level last week, after which Oil pivoted to the upside from 35.24 to last Friday’s (Apr 8) close at 39.66.

Renewed strength comes amid ongoing debate about still-massive excess supply, still-worrisome over-production, and doubts about the resolve of OPEC and Non-OPEC producers to freeze output at the forthcoming Doha Meeting on April 17. (more…)

Is Yen Canary in Coal Mine?

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Since the Yen low (USD high) at 125.86 in June 2015, the Yen has climbed about 15%. Since Jan 29, 2016, when BOJ (Bank of Japan) moved to Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), the Yen has climbed nearly 12%!

Let’s fully understand that instead of weakening in reaction to negative interest rates, the Yen has strengthened! My reaction to this counter-intuitive situation is that:

1) market psychology has reversed from confidence in QE (very easy money) to concern that it has not, all will not work to produce inflation and demand, and

2) investors have been, and still are, unwinding massive, intermediate-term, short Yen positions that reflected their prior optimism in “Abenomics”.

Who cares? We should, because this counter-intuitive picture is coming to a theater near you, as The Great QE Unwind extends into the US financial markets, possibly much sooner than later.

full-nzf2zC484pDmpZIklOhQhOriginally published on MPTrader.com.

Glaring Divergences Between S&P 500 and Oil

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For the past two weeks, the heretofore, inseparable tracts of the Emini S&P 500 (ES) and Oil have seriously diverged.

Since Apr 22, ES is up about 1%, while Oil has declined about 14%.

ES remains in a well-defined uptrend, while Oil has carved out a meaningful, near-term downtrend after its Feb-Mar advance from $26 to $42.

Of course, from a much longer-term perspective, ES is in a multi-year bull trend, that is recovering from a 14% Jan-Feb correction, while Oil remains in the grasp of a vicious bear market from $110 to $26, and may have merely ended a “minor” recovery-rally period.

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RTN Poised for Upside Thrust

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All of the action in Raytheon Company (RTN) since its Dec high at 129.99 has the right look of a completed, or nearly completed, digestion period in the aftermath of the prior significant upleg off of its July 2015 low at 95.32.

As long as important near-term support at 120.50 to 119.45 retains the integrity of the high-level digestion pattern, I want to be long RTN in anticipation of a forthcoming thrust to new highs.

The upside from yesterday’s low at 120.24 to today’s high at 123.88 suggests strongly that RTN has established and pivot point within its bullish digestion period, ahead of upside acceleration.

full-CBUvAdy4eisdavyTvtqItOriginally published on MPTrader.com. 

Oil Traverses to Channel Bottom

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Crude Oil is down another 2% today, after spiraling down nearly 4% yesterday in reaction to a much greater than expected build in Weekly Inventories.

Let’s notice that the weakness off of Tuesday’s recovery-rally high at $41.90– against the upper-channel boundary line– has traversed the entire width of the channel, as the price structure probes the lower-channel boundary in the vicinity of $38.50, where the weakness should be contained, ahead of renewed buying interest.

That said, my intermediate-term work also has rolled over, and suggests strongly that any bounce off of the lower-channel boundary line will be short lived ahead of downside continuation towards $36-$34.

full-dkdI2MEwwgAYWtWxfmv5GOriginally published on MPTrader.com