For the past two weeks, the heretofore, inseparable tracts of the Emini S&P 500 (ES) and Oil have seriously diverged.
Since Apr 22, ES is up about 1%, while Oil has declined about 14%.
ES remains in a well-defined uptrend, while Oil has carved out a meaningful, near-term downtrend after its Feb-Mar advance from $26 to $42.
Of course, from a much longer-term perspective, ES is in a multi-year bull trend, that is recovering from a 14% Jan-Feb correction, while Oil remains in the grasp of a vicious bear market from $110 to $26, and may have merely ended a “minor” recovery-rally period.
In any case, as long as any weakness in ES holds above 2040, the bulls will keep directional control. Oil must remain north of $36.00 to avert downside continuation towards $34.
That said, we have to be mindful of a directional re-coupling between weak Oil, and a roll-over in ES.
