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The Dollar Index (DXY) hit a one-tick, 2015 new high at 100.31 yesterday. (11/30), but has turned a touch lower this morning to 99.80/72 so far.
What is interesting is that the new high was not confirmed by my daily RSI Momentum Gauge, which actually peaked back on Nov 6 at 99.35.
This is a warning that DXY could be nearing, or at, an exhaustion area prior to a significant correction.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has tested and so far held its Sep-Nov support line, now at 79.90, as well as its slightly up-sloping 200-Day EMA, now at 79.58.
That said, the real question is whether or not BABA can reverse and rally strongly off of the 79.90/60 support zone?
Today’s close will be important, if only because “Singles Day” (tomorrow) has created all measures of huge sales expectations.
Let’s see if and for how long BABA can hold key support.
Originally published at MPTrader.com.
Today the Emini S&P 500 should provide clues as to whether or not yesterday’s low at 1861.00 represented a significant corrective low off of the Sept 17 Fed High at 2011.75.
As of this moment, my pattern work shows a near-total traverse of the bearish down channel carved out since mid-Sept.
From a purely technical perspective, the dominant trend remains down, and will continue to do so, unless, and until, the back of the downtrend is violated– first with a climb above resistance lodged between 1906, and the upper-channel boundary line, now at 1915, and thereafter, with a climb above the prior major recovery-rally peak at 1951.00– to confirm that a major-trend reversal has occurred.
Although the Dollar Index (DXY) is up today, the Dollar is down vs Yen.
The big-picture chart below shows the toppy pattern that developed in the USD vs YEN during the May-Aug timeframe, which has been followed by a spike down, and “bearish” consolidation period that appears to be nearing completion.
If that proves accurate, then USD/YEN should roll over hard into a nosedive that revisits the Aug 24 low at 116.13.
Only an upside reversal and climb above 121.10 will begin to neutralize my current outlook.
As the global and U.S. equity markets stage a huge recovery rally, 10-year YIELD continues to creep higher– to 2.24% from the Aug 24 low at 1.90%– within a larger-developing bottoming pattern (outlined by the red lines below).
Current strength has propelled YIELD up and out of its near-term digestion (flag) pattern that triggers upside potential to challenge its Jan, 2014, resistance line, now at 2.40%.
Only a break below 2.11% will wreck the developing bullish set-up in YIELD.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
