Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Semiconductor Sector

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As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4 2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are front and center in forming our analysis about coming events. Excerpted from the January 20th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 535…

Semiconductor Sector – Watch the Early Bird in 2019

This one is special for me. I started my work life many moons ago as a participant with the Semi sector [circa 1983-1993], painfully learning first hand how violent the cyclical turns can be. Dialing ahead a couple decades, in January of 2013 NFTRH began a narrative that saw the then up-turning Semi Equipment bookings (this data is unfortunately no longer published) lead the sector, general manufacturing and eventually the whole raft of components that make up the economy into a cyclical up-turn.

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SPX and Gold; Pivotal Points at Hand

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Leaving aside our usual inclusion of macro fundamentals and market ratios, today let’s take a simple technical look at the S&P 500 and gold.

As the US stock market was becoming deeply oversold (and over-hated, sentiment-wise) in December we planned for a holiday seasonal bounce, which finally arrived with the immediate reversal after the Christmas Eve massacre when the machines (and a few human casino patrons) drove it to its downside climax. The bounce was almost a certainty, given the sentiment backdrop of the moment.

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The Men Who Stare at Charts: Decades of Disinflation & 7 Years Post-Op Twist

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I was going to look around to see if I could find a media article out there (complete with a TA trying to sound really important) that would be appropriate to be made fun of in our little Men Who Stare at Charts series. But then I decided to create my own chart, stare at it a little, post it and talk about it (hopefully not too self-importantly).

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Cyclical Assets vs. Gold

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In January of 2018 we noted a cyclical leader (Semiconductor Fab Equipment) in trouble: Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018.

We also ran a series of articles featuring the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (of the macro) in order to gauge a point when larger herds of investors would become aware of cyclical issues facing the global (including the US) economy. Each Amigo (SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Treasury yields and a flattening Yield Curve) would ride with the good times but signal an end to those good times when reaching destination (Amigos 1 & 2 got home but #3, the Yield Curve is still out there). Here is the latest Amigos status update from October: SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve.

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