Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Amigo #2 (10yr Yield) Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing

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Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.

Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.

So okay, I played swami and nailed the Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings numbers on the head in this post from yesterday. We all get lucky here in the casino. Here is the post that the estimates came from the day before the Payrolls release. (more…)

Economy and Inflation: Playing it Straight

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Sure, I am the guy with indicators called the 3 Amigos and in the future, the 4 Horsemen. I am the guy who for 17+ years has been making up catch phrases for indicators and market backdrops alike (ex. 30yr T bond Continuum, Armageddon ’08 and the Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance, etc.) entertaining, pissing off and confusing people, and maybe along the way doing some teaching too.

Currently we have the happy-go-lucky Amigos (SPX vs. Gold, 10yr/30yr Yields & the Flattening Yield Curve) front and center as they ride toward their destinations, the end of the journey to which would begin to change the macro. We also have a supremely sensitive proprietary indicator being used in NFTRH to significantly fine tune the process of interpreting changes to the current cycle. You’ve gotta come at the macro from as many rational angles as possible if you want to minimize its confusing aspects. (more…)

USD/Euro to Be the 4th Horseman?

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I find the previous two monthly charts of USD and Euro to be of such great interest that they could well be assigned the designation of Amigo #4. But that would screw up a perfectly good (and goofy) theme.

I could shoe horn them in as the 4th Horseman (thought I forgot about this theme, did you?) but the 4th rider was to be the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR). We’ll see on that, because the GSR has been a dysfunctional indicator for so long now.* USD & Euro may yet be the 4th Horseman of the Apocalypse to help bring on the pain after the happy go lucky goofballs above finish up. (more…)

A Few Words on the Gold Sector

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As the long-term interest rate Amigo continues upward, the anti-USD ‘inflation trade’ continues onward and more and more gold bug writers emerge from the woodwork, it is time for a little antidote to the inevitable pitches and hype to come.

Everything is playing to script and with this little pullback to a higher low in the miners being resolved in the favored direction, the writer bugs are going to further their bullish message and try to get more reader bugs to follow their guidance. But absolutely nothing has changed.

We caught the seasonal rally amid much disgust by writer and reader bugs, and it has simply not yet concluded. Nothing more to read into it than that. While I think 2018 is likely to see the confirmation of a new bull market, a selling opportunity is probably upcoming amid gold bug bravado and pomp (oms) because the fundamentals are not yet in order. (more…)

The Macro View: Amigos Ride On

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As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3).

When our zany friends complete the journey, big changes are likely in the macro markets.

Let’s take a checkup on each Amigo and consider some implications as well. (more…)