Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Crack-Up Booming

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Credit expansion, AKA more and more debt, into von Mises Crack-Up-Boom would bring Stagflation at best, and Hyperinflation at worst in the not too distant future

[edit] Today’s better than expected Payrolls number is just a number. Real? Cooked up? To be revised? Whatever it is, it is in alignment with the article below, written before the data release. It’s a boom, after all!

At more than $36 trillion and due to be pushed toward $40 trillion by the big, beautiful debt bill, the United States is booming baby, booming! Great again, beautiful and will you look at those stock markets, ticking new highs!

Illustration of Ludwig von Mises, an economist known for advocating laissez-faire economics and the Austrian Business Cycle Theory.

Easy now, a Crack-Up-Boom is when credit (along with its evil twin, debt) runs amok. As a whole, our system creates credit and shoves it out into the economy. See The U.S. is Not a Capitalist Country for more on our debt-for-growth addiction in the age of Inflation onDemand, kicked off by Sir Alan the Monetary a quarter century ago.

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The U.S. is Not a Capitalist Country

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Under the Federal Reserve system, the U.S. is not a capitalist country, it is a socialist welfare State for the elite, compliments of inflation

Socialism For the Elite, Not Capitalism

The distinction between the United States of America’s version of ‘green’ Socialism and what is traditionally known and reviled as ‘red’ Socialism is that the recipients of the welfare are wealthy asset owners/investors. You see, it’s okay when Socialism serves the ruling and majority classes.

You own a home that has appreciated in value to bubble proportions? You’re an asset owner and your asset has been inflated in perceived value, compliments of the Federal Reserve system. My wife and I sold our bubble asset a year ago at what I believe was the top of the market. I guess you’d call that bubble “Capitalism”.

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Silver/Gold Ratio Trades on the Cusp

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The Silver/Gold ratio trades, my name for a wider commodity rally, are on the cusp of another leg up

You could call them “inflation trades”, but the post-2021 phase and its heavy inflationary effects * saw commodities generally trend downward as hawkish Fed policy ** supported the US dollar.

So I came up with a new and more accurate way to describe a widespread commodity bull phase; the Silver/Gold ratio trades. When silver leads gold the indication is that cyclical markets, pumped as they were through the magic of inflationary policy, are still okay.

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Big Trade Now or After a Summer Dip?

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Commodity Rally, Led by Gold, Silver & TSX-V:

The commodity rally, such as it has been so far, should take on a new intensity, possibly after a summer cool-down

Below I present for you one of those charts trying to say so much it could make your eyes water and your head spin. The chart is trying to quantify the history of loosely related markets (gold, silver, broad commodities and even the Canadian TSX-V index).

The reason we are doing this work is not to be bullish on the gold price, which we have been since the monetary metal took out the bull gateway (1378) in 2019. It is not to be bullish on silver, which is and has been bullish (in a lagging manner to gold) since its pattern breakout a year ago.

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