Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Peak Trump

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The following is the opening segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 437.  While I think several proposed Trump administration policies would have positive down the road effects for corporate America and the asset ownership class, the administration will have to survive intact in order to implement them.  This is one erratic and shall we say, fluid, situation and this is not a leader who inspires confidence, speaking personally at least.

Peak Trump

Last week we reduced the charting in favor of increased talking. That was because I had some things to say about the at-risk gold sector and its incomplete macro fundamentals.

There was also a lot to say about stock market sectors that would be favored or avoided if the long-term bond yield environment continued to shift to declining (bonds bouncing). Last week dealt a blow (in the form of Trump’s triumphant speech to congress and unusually aggressive Fed jawboning) to bonds, but did not break the play.

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SPX 30 & 12 Month Cycles

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  1. With the disclaimer being that as an intuitive and more artful TA using inter-market ratio measuring tools and the like, I am the furthest thing from an accomplished cycles analyst.  Indeed, I am probably less adept at it than you are.

That behind us, I was fooling around with Stockcharts.com’s cycles tool and came up with this monthly view of the S&P 500, with the thick black lines being a 30 month cycle and the thin green lines being a 12 month cycle, each starting from the 2000 market top.

Each cycle has caught some pretty significant turning points with the 30 mo. having caught the 2000 and 2007 tops along with the 2002 bottom and the pre-corrective 2015 top.  The 12 mo. cycle seems to have been more adept at spotting interim turning points but it did catch the 2009 bottom.

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Silver 2011, Dow 2017

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This is not a top call.  My target was Dow 21,000 and this pig blew through it and flew to 21,115.  This is a comparison of one bubble to another a potential other.

In 2011 silver put on an amazing run.  First, it dropped and crashed the SMA 50 at the beginning of the year.  Then it rebounded, became over bought by RSI (and distance from the SMA 50), tested the short-term EMA 20 and then went all Sky Lab, making a 2nd strenuously overbought reading on RSI.  Then… kerplunk.

silver 2011

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“When the Pig Tops”

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Note from Tim: I wanted to preface this (typically superb) post from NFTRH with something that happens very rarely.…….a coupon to Slope Plus for those of you considering it.  I am offering a free month for you to try the service by clicking on this link. When you do, enter the coupon code winter2017 and it will give you the first month for free. (This coupon is only going to be working for a few days, so don’t lollygag).

0225-coupon

Besides all the normal extras you get as a Slope Plus subscriber, you’ll also be getting the very best ideas I’ve got (many of which have been doing really well, even in this market, as you’ll see once you have access). I hope you’ll give it a try. On with the regular post now…………

Flying Pig

Filed under the category ‘smartest group of subscribers in the world’, I got an email from NFTRH subscriber Joe F. last week as I was mechanically managing the gold market in my somewhat downplayed, unexciting way…

“You win 9 out of 10 [I don’t, actually], but I think the setup is there for gold to go immediately.”

For a writer of many words over many years, I can sometimes grunt out the most basic of responses…

“When the pig tops.”

The Pig of course, is the US stock market (and many associated global stock markets as well).  Said Pig has slopped, slopped some more and most recently begun actually flying, during its bull phase coming out of last summer’s ‘don’t be short!’ signal at the depths of the Brexit reaction.

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First 100 Days Since Election… Bullish, Right?

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On the surface, Trump’s 1st 100 days (since election) ‘comp’ well with JFK, as well as Bush 1 and Clinton.  Each of these presidents saw successful markets for the rest of the year.  From data supplied by Bespoke (whose premium service is a good market data source) I created this table showing the S&P 500’s ‘1st 100 days since election’ percentage, the largest decline from a closing high, the next 100 days and the rest of the year (ROY).

Bullish, right?  JKF, Bush 1 and to a lesser degree, Clinton would say so.

presidential 1st 100

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