The BoE, in battling the fallout from Brexit (a decelerating economy), has dropped rates to .25%. Bond markets cheer, with US yields dropping (bonds up) and global bonds rising. From Investing.com…
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
2016: Current Market Themes
A year ago almost to the day we began tracking a ‘Macrocosmic’ theme that would eventually see gold bottom and rise vs. stocks and bonds in 2016, joining its bullish status vs. commodities, which had been in place since 2014.
Nominal gold bottomed in December 2015 before silver, commodities and stocks as a counter cyclical environment birthed a new precious metals bull market. We updated the progress here, here and here in 2016.
But markets, being the product of immeasurable moving parts, are always in motion and you cannot get too hung up on any one theme, ideology or habit. When the Semiconductor sector began burping up its positive signals for the economy and for stocks, we listened intently and I for one, put my capital where my mouth was and noted as much each week in NFTRH.
Gold vs. Commodities
The signals of gold vs. other assets and markets have become so important to financial markets over the last year (hello Macrocosm, July 27 2015) that I have created a standard segment in NFTRH called ‘Gold vs.‘. The segment regularly checks up on gold vs. stock markets, currencies, bonds and of course, commodities.
Here is the state of the latter. After the chart I’ll summarize some of the market signals.
- Au-CRB is in a long-term uptrend. This uptrend has been in place since late 2014, when not coincidentally, volatile market disturbances started to erupt. The uptrend is in place, indicating a generally counter cyclical global atmosphere. If gold breaks down vs. cyclical CRB the ‘inflation’ play would drive hot money out to other areas beyond gold mining. If not, the favored gold mining fundamental backdrop will have held up.
More on the ‘Breadth Thrust’ and Market Internals
NFTRH 404 deviated from the usual format of widespread, in-depth coverage of US and global markets, precious metals and commodities in order to focus on two main themes. One was a view of building short-term risks in the gold market (possibly pending new rally highs) and the other of a developing bullish phase in the US stock market. We reproduce part of that segment here…
More on the ‘Breadth Thrust’ and Market Internals
Ref. Breadth Thrust: Prelude to a Crash? (July 12)
Subscriber ‘LN’ presented a view of the impending ‘breadth thrust’ signal and we both came to the same conclusion; that this is ending action in the stock market. It is at once very bullish and very bearish, depending on time frames. Below is additional information per ‘LN’, who is a financial adviser and thus, not a casual observer. I would also note that both ‘LN’ and I have similar caveats about analogs from the past projecting to the future (they often do not do it well). But for reference (emphasis mine)…
“I went back and looked at 1987 a little closer. I know the price action isn’t going to be identical but I wanted to see if they rhyme at all. (more…)
Prelude to a Crash?
Pardon the sensational post title, but an email from a subscriber (‘L’, a financial advisor) had a grounding effect on me. He sent me this photo along with…
“I thought you might be interested in the breadth thrust that is going to trigger today. For some reason the Internet seems to be full of misinterpretation of a thrust. My numbers show that this will trigger today. Sets up for a 1987 scenario it seems to me. Attached is the history of it.”
