Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

‘Inflation Trade’ Alive and Well

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I don’t write the title because the precious metals took off Friday on the bad jobs report. Far from it. That is what gold is supposed to do under such circumstances as its fundamentals got a boost and the perceptions of a hawkish Fed got repelled.

I write the title despite the fact that the inflation barometer, TIP/TLT, tanked and commodities were moderate, post-jobs. Yesterday we noted: Inflation Expectations Sagging, including a declining TIP/TLT and a bullish looking TLT (each a form of non-inflationary signaling). Friday they got bearisher and bullisher, respectively.

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AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode

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Following is the opening segment from the May 29 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 397:

If we are going to highlight improving fundamentals, which we did as gold out performed commodities and stock markets, then we also have to highlight and respect eroding fundamentals; no ifs, ands or buts.

The plain and simple fact is that the Semiconductor Equipment sector is firming, with the April Book-to-Bill (b2b) joining Applied Materials’ quarterly report noted in NFTRH 396’s opening segment as another bullish [economic] indicator. Semi Equipment was a leader to the general Semi sector in early 2013, which in turn led the economy and job creation. Our fundamental gold view improved in January 2016 as gold launched upward vs. global stock markets, joining its positive status vs. commodities.

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Did AMAT Chirp? Implications for the Economy and Gold

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The following is the opening segment of this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 396. The report also covers, in detail, the technical status of US/Global stock markets, precious metals, commodities, currencies and even a few individual gold miners and a couple of new (non-gold related) NFTRH+ trade ideas.

In January of 2013 we noted that the “Canary’s Canary” chirped and signaled an economic up phase (such as it was) on the horizon. The Canary was the Semiconductor sector, which is cyclical and economically sensitive. The Canary’s Canary is the Semi Equipment sector, manned by the likes of Applied Materials and Lam Research.

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Pro-Inflation? Anti-USD?

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This is the opening segment from the May 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 395. I am releasing it for public viewing because it seems, the title’s question has come roaring to the forefront this week. So the information (including the charts) is slightly dated, but becoming intensely relevant as of now.

We anticipated an ‘inflation trade’ or Anti-USD asset market bounce and this has been going on since mid-February. That was when silver wrestled leadership from the first mover, gold (which bottomed in December and turned up in January), and a whole host of other global asset markets began to rise persistently.

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Armstrong

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Aside from sounding consistently self-conscious Martin Armstrong seems to find a need to wrap basic and well known (or what should be well known) concepts in cloaks of mystery that only he – and his computer – can divine. I think this is a really smart man, but with an out sized ego.

Up-Down-Sideways? What is Going On?

“The Golden Rule of the 3 Attempts (TM)” * is another way of saying that the more times a market bashes away at resistance, the weaker that resistance tends to become. It’s basic TA, can be applied to short or long time frames and it’s widely known and respected. You have seen me write things like that many times over the years. In reverse, the more times support is tested, the weaker it tends to become. TA 101, or at least it should be.

“It becomes rather amusing to what the so called professions end up constantly wrong so they start bruding and proclaiming this feels like 2000 or 2007 before the crash.”

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