Here’s a look at the daily & weekly charts of the three largest
sectors in the S&P 500 index; technology, financials and health
care. These top three sectors make up nearly 1/2 of the index so where
they go, the market likely follows. As you can see below, all three are
at or approaching key levels.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
AAPL Monthly Sell Signals: 2 Down, 1 to Go
As this monthly chart of the Big AAPL shows, there have been three
well defined primary uptrends (bull markets) in the stock over the last
14 years. Each of those trend reversals were confirmed by three
criteria:
- A break below the primary uptrend line or a successful back test of the trendline following the breakdown.
- A bearish crossover on the MACD (as best viewed on the MACD histogram)
- A break (and close) below the 20 month exponential moving average.
As this chart illustrates, the first two criteria have been met and
currently, prices are sitting on the 20 ema but have yet to print a
monthly close below. Coincidentally (or really not), a break below the
20 month ema would coincide with the critical support level that I’ve
been highlighting on the daily time frame.
With just five trading
sessions left in the year, will Santa bring AAPL a gift and keep it
above that 20 ema by the close on Jan 31st or will he give AAPL a lump
of coal in its stocking, dragging the stock lower to close below that
level, thereby giving the stock it’s third and most likely final long-term sell
signal and confirmation of a new bear market in the world’s largest
publicly traded company?
QID Scenarios
First chart below shows the QID scenarios posted two weeks ago
today. Prices today are basically where they were back then with QID
still bouncing off that support (S1) level. Not by chance, that level
coincides with the 3030-3040 resistance level on the $COMPQ and the
1430-1440 level on the $SPX, both of which are also being challenged
today. As back then, if these levels are taken out then the alternative
scenario then becomes the primary scenario, as prices on QID are likely
to fall to the next support level (S2).
Overstock, Overbought
OSTK (overstock.com) looks like a nice long-term swing short opportunity. This
weekly chart speaks volumes to me: First off, OSTK has made an
impressive, but over-extended rip right up to a primary downtrend line
generating from the stocks’s all-time high back in Dec. 2004. Note how
every single overbought reading on this weekly chart, nearly a 10 year
span, has been followed by a very substantial correction. Typically, it
is the move back down below the 70 (overbought) level that confirms a
sell signal when incorporating the RSI into your analysis. As you can
see, the weekly RSI is currently poised to break below that level on any
addition downside or even sideways trading in the stock.
Benpecked
henpecked Benpecked (‘ben·pekd)
Definition
adjective
- (of a man stock trader) continually harassed or tormented by the persistent nagging of a woman central bank chairman (esp. his wife Ben Bernanke)
As I’ve discussed quite a bit lately, what makes the recent Sept
14-Nov 17th correction different from all other similar sell-offs in
recent years is the lack of fear this time around. There are generally
two types of traders who short the market, other than commercial
hedgers: The “permabears”, who always think the market is going to drop
and those more adept, flexible traders who are just as comfortable
trading the short side as the long side, depending on the charts,
valuation, and other market metrics. I like to believe that I fall into
the latter categorization but I digress.
