Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The Bernanke Kaput
ka·put: Broken and useless; no longer working and effective.
I’ve always been of the opinion that charts speak louder
than words. Here are a few of the most recent US economic reports,
which really don’t need much of an explanation or technical expertise to
decipher. The longer they bid the market up on the belief that
QEternity and the Bernanke Put Kaput will lift the stock
market forever, the larger the disconnect between equity prices and the
underlying economic fundamentals becomes. The larger this disconnect
gets, the more powerful the reversion to the mean will be once it
finally manifests. Have a nice weekend.
–Randy Phinney, RSOTC.com
Global Markets Overview
These Are a Few of My Favorite Things
TJX is an active short trade that recently came within a point of hitting the first target just
before the market bounced and once again looks to offer an objective
short entry here as it back-tests the recently broken S1 support level
(now R1, resistance). T2 (28.30) is my preferred swing target on this
trade over time and would provide roughly a 35% gain from current levels
if hit. Therefore, stops can be set as high as 10% above current
levels and still offer a 3.5:1 R/R although one could also short here
with a stop not too far above resistance on a move over the 44.40 area,
thereby giving this trade an excellent R/R of 15:1. Daily & 2-day period charts below:
No Fear
I often liken stock market predictions to weather forecasting. A
meteorologist can tell you what the weather will be like tomorrow with a
very high degree of certainty. However, as the forecast is extended in
time, the accuracy diminishes. Trying to forecast what the weather
will be like anything more than a few weeks out, other than
incorporating the typical seasonal patterns is basically a crap-shoot.
The same holds true when using technical and even fundamental analysis
to forecast future prices in individual stocks or the stock market
although I do believe that the charts, combined with the study of the
business cycle and other macro-economics, do allow us to make
potentially accurate longer-term predictions.
