If crude oil has a dominant cycle, then does this mean world conflict has a cycle? Crude oil cycle watches new an upswing in 2013 was coming soon. We all know the correlation with $100 oil and instant recession that follows in the USA. Well what happens when you have $120 oil and 10 year interest rates higher by 30% at say 3.25%. Consumer squeeze coming. Get the feeling that he commodity bull run is about to start again. Metals, energy and grains have been hitting higher prices recently. This of course means the US Federal Reserve can never stop printing as the US has large bills to pay. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Aussie Banks in for a Rocky Time
The banks that escaped balance sheet damage from the 2008 financial crisis are those down under in Australia.
Previous posts:
Australia to enter a very sad decade – Update2
Australia to enter a very sad decade – Update
Australia to enter a very sad period
The Aussie banks and economy was saved by the 18% of GDP stimulus China started on the eve of the crisis. This allowed Aussie exports to flow to China without a any major hick up, this also allowed the Aussie property market to avoid any serious down swing. (more…)
The Next Big Trend
Looking forward the next big moves will be in these securities. Nostradamus would be proud! (more…)
The Bond Kings Have Been Educated
Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach are magnificent bond fund managers, they are known as the bond kings. Recently, both bond kings have suffered large redemptions within their bond funds as losses are realized due to interest rates rising. (more…)
China and Copper Remain Bearish
China and Japan account for 18% of world GDP (if you believe the numbers) and all is not well.
As stated before the economic term GDP is just a politically made up statistic by US President Roosevelt to tell the masses that things were improving during the great depression, when they were not. The true measure is income and net savings growth.
Back on topic.Both China and Japan have increasing economic issues:
Japan
– QE of 25% of GDP is not resulting in economic growth.
– QE has increased the cost of living (energy cost) thus incomes under pressure.
– Domestic and international demand for Japanese goods has fallen and industrial production sank recently
China
– Shadow banking stress of $10 trillion is a major concern (Bert Dohmen comments)
– Funding for non state own business has dried up
– American companies exposed to China are suffering. Apple, Yum Brands, Anglo American, McDonalds.
Copper (JJC) has a high correlation to China ETF FXI, China copper demand is about 30% of the worlds copper market. The chart below shows the price and volume wave situation, and at the moment rallies in JJC and FXI should be sold.
Investing Quote…
..”Your goals are to select only stocks that move soonest, fastest and farthest in bull or bear markets. Limited losses and let profits run.”..
Richard D Wyckoff
…”The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different”…
John Templeton
