Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Four Calls and a Question

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Back in my post on 11th April I called the likely start of a strong rally which we then saw of course.

Back in my post on 12th May I called for new all time highs on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and laid out possible IHS scenarios on both Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), looking for ideal right shoulder lows on Solana in the 125.43 area and on Ethereum in the 2074.27 area. That hasn’t gone quite as I drew then but essentially both are still running that scenario.

In my last post on 23rd Jun I called the likely lows on those right shoulders made on Solana at 126.09 and on Ethereum at 2113.65, and was looking for that IHS scenario on both to start to play out.

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Tariffs and TACOs

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Back on Tuesday 3rd June I laid out a possible bullish scenario in which I was looking for retests of the all time highs on SPX and NDX, with follow-on targets if both ran higher, a retest of the all time high on INDU, and a possible longer shot retest of the all time high on IWM based on a large IHS. Since then we have seen all three of those new all time highs on SPX, NDX and INDU, and the IHS on IWM has broken up hard and made it slightly less than halfway to the target at a retest of that all time high.

What we haven’t seen yet is the further extension to the possible trendline targets that I was looking at on SPX into the 6450-6500 area, or on NDX into the 24000-24500 area, or the new all time high on IWM of course, but I think this rally is likely now very close to at minimum to a steep retracement and may currently be making the highest highs that we will see in 2025.

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The Bigger Picture on the USD

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This is my first public post on the US Dollar possibly since 2012, so it will be lengthier than normal as it will also act as a reference post that I can refer back to every time I do an update on USD here in the future.

I’ve always really enjoyed doing the long term charts on the US Dollar. Longer term patterns can take decades to form, with the falling wedge that broke up in 2014 breaking a wedge resistance trendline coming from a high in 1985.

Even the shorter term patterns within these larger patterns can take many years to form. On the monthly chart below I was noting in April 2012 that the rising megaphone that formed in the 90’s took six years to form, and the current rising megaphone on USD has been forming since the big low in 2008, which was the lowest low going back as far as my data extends to the dying days of the gold standard in 1970.

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State of Confusion

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In my posts on 3rd June and on 11th June I was putting the case for retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ, and potentially also on DIA and IWM. In the event that equity indices went higher from there I was also giving targets for that.

In my post on Friday 20th June I laid out a possible short term retracement scenario that I said I didn’t like but was potentially on the cards, and that didn’t happen, despite the US joining the war against Iran over the weekend.

Since the weekend that modest bearish scenario has collapsed, SPX and QQQ have made new highs for June, oil futures fell an amazing $14 from high to low yesterday as fears of an extended conflict in the Middle East receded.

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Candidate Low on Crypto

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In my post on Tuesday 17th June I was looking at an inflection point on Crypto that might break down, and gave targets for that move. That setup started breaking down on Friday and two out of three of those downside target areas, on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) were reached over the weekend.

The target that has not been reached was on Solana (SOLUSD) but there is a decent case for all three making a significant low at the weekend lows.

Back in my post on Monday 12th May I was laying out a scenario where possible large large IHS patterns were forming on Solana and Ethereum and I gave the ideal right shoulder targets at 125.43 on Solana and 2135.28 on Ethereum. The weekend lows were at 126.09 and 2113.65 respectively.

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