Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Burning Down The House

By -

In my last post on Friday I was looking at a decent quality rally setup and that was looking good on Friday night, but Trump’s interviews on Sunday delivered a big decline yesterday. Trump’s comments in those interviews however were very illuminating about the likely direction on tariff policy over the next few months.

So, what did the interviews tell us? Well firstly Trump is very keen on imposing tariffs on most of the trading partners of the US and seems to be convinced that will bring in a lot of extra money for the US. I think he is seeing that as a heavy tax that the US can impose on trading partners for the privilege of trading with the US, and we have already seen that he seems to think that this won’t come at a heavy cost to the US.

(more…)

Decision Time on Crypto Rally

By -

In my post on Friday I was talking about the possible rally setup on Crypto and, while Crypto has gone down over the weekend, the rally setup has improved. It looks fragile though, and would rapidly fall in quality with a significant decline from here.

In the meantime, Trump was interviewed yesterday and was talking about further tariffs he was looking at against overseas trade partners. He was asked whether these policies might trigger a recession and said it was possible while seeming very relaxed about that prospect. This was not encouraging for equities and is fuelling further speculation that the current bull markets in Crypto and equities may now be over. I’m wondering more about that too but we’ll see how this develops.

(more…)

A Leap Of Faith

By -

Back in 2011/2 I was chatting to a guy on a blog and he said that the problem with gold was that the price of gold was only what someone was prepared to pay for it. I replied that he had come very close to a huge insight into nature of markets, but had failed to grasp it at the last moment. That is because the truth is that anything is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it, and what they would be paying for it with was also only worth what someone is prepared to pay for that. To that extent markets are based on faith, rather than value, as value itself is heavily based on faith.

What does this mean? Well it means sentiment and expectation are very important, and uncertainty depresses markets, and a big shock in confidence can cause big market declines or crashes.

How is this relevant? Well there is a nice looking rally setup here at a big inflection point, but for the rally to happen markets will need to make a leap of faith.

(more…)

Possible Rally Setups On Bitcoin & Solana

By -

In my post on 20th February I was looking at the big support levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025. So far the big levels on Solana and Ethereum have been tested and are holding, but the Bitcoin double top has not yet played out to the target at 69k to 70k and I’m still thinking that is likely.

In my post on 28th February I was putting the case that the bull market on Crypto isn’t over until the bull market on Bitcoin is over, and so far there is little indication of that, though that could change of course if there is a hard break below the 65k to 73.8k backtest zone.

(more…)

Trump and Tariffs

By -

In my post on Wednesday 19th Feb I was looking at the very nice looking topping setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and somewhat less nice topping setup on IWM, and in my post yesterday I reviewed those, which have now all broken down with the exception of the big double top pattern on DIA.

I don’t discuss politics much generally but given the news bomb action we have seen in recent weeks and the rapid changes we are seeing in the economic and political structure of the world around us this year, I want to talk briefly about Trump and the tariffs that he is currently very keen on imposing on many or all of those who trade with the US.

(more…)