Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Crypto Hitting Big Support

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In my last post I was looking at the big support levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025.

That is still my view and I still don’t think that the bull market is over. I did promise to cover why that is in this post but I have other things to look at today so I’ll be looking at that in another post before the end of the week.

On Bitcoin (BTCUSD) I was looking at a very obvious backtest target at the 2021 bull market highs. I’ve marked that on the chart below in the $64.9k to $69k range. I also have a rising support trendline from the October 2023 low that is currently in the $65k area and due to reach $69k in May.

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An Uncertainty Principle

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In my post on Monday 10th Feb I was looking at the bull flag setups on SPX and QQQ and the historically bullish lean through Tuesday 18th Feb and was projecting that we might well see retests of the all-time highs on SPX and QQQ in that bullish window. We saw those all-time high retests on QQQ on Friday 14th Feb and on SPX on Tuesday 18th Feb.

In my post on Wednesday 19th Feb I was looking at the very nice-looking topping setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and the historically bearish lean through Friday 28th Feb and suggesting that if these patterns were going to deliver, then this bearish window would be a good time to get started on that.

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Looking at Crypto Support Levels

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In December I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025.

That retracement / consolidation is now in progress and I’ll be looking today at the key support levels I’ll be watching on what I expect to be a bullish consolidation.

Is it possible that the Crypto bull market has already ended? Yes, but I’m leaning against that. I’ll be explaining why that is in my next post.

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So Here We Are

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In my last post on Monday 10th Feb I was looking at the bull flag setups on SPX and QQQ and the historically bullish lean into yesterday and projecting that we might well see retests of the all time highs in that bullish window. We saw that all time high retest on QQQ on Friday and on SPX yesterday. So what now?

Well we now have impressive topping patterns on SPX and QQQ and a bearish window has started that runs through to the end of February, with notably bearish leaning days on Thursday and Friday this week, Monday 24th Feb and Friday 28th Feb. We will see how that develops.

On SPX the bullish setup I was looking at last week was a bull flag megaphone and that delivered a very marginal new all time high yesterday. The bearish pattern setup here is now a possible nested double top.

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One Last Heave

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In my premarket video on Friday I was noting the four hourly sell signals fixed (3x) or forming (1x) on ES, NQ, RTY and DAX and saying that we might well see a retracement day. We saw that and all those signals reached target by the end of the day.

In my The Bigger Picture video yesterday I was looking at the support backtests seen on Friday and was looking at the bullish looking setups on SPX and QQQ particularly. So far that looks as though it may be delivering so let’s review.

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