Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Looking Over the Cliff Edge

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In my post on Wednesday 22nd October I was looking at the major support being tested on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and saying that sustained breaks below those support levels would boost the case that the bull market on Crypto has already ended, barring possible high retests as part of the topping process. This was and is a major inflection point, and the direction of the break from this inflection point is still in the balance.

I was noting that the last two bull market highs on Bitcoin were in December 2017 and November 2021, close to the end of the year and four years apart, so the end of 2025 is the obvious period to be looking for an end to the current bull market, and I’ve had that pencilled in at the likely topping area all year.

In my last post on Thursday 30th October I was looking in detail at the key support levels on the weekly and daily charts and looking at the possible H&S patterns forming on the Solana and Ethereum charts.

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Important Crypto Inflection

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In my last post on Wednesday 22nd October I was looking at the major support being tested on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and saying that sustained breaks below those support levels would boost the case that the bull market on Crypto has already ended, barring possible high retests as part of the topping process. This was and is a major inflection point, and the direction of the break from this inflection point is still in the balance.

I was noting that the last two bull market highs on Bitcoin were in December 2017 and November 2021, close to the end of the year and four years apart, so the end of 2025 is the obvious period to be looking for an end to the current bull market, and I’ve had that pencilled in at the likely topping area all year.

On the Bitcoin weekly chart the first big support is the weekly middle band, which was tested as support for six or the seven weeks before Bitcoin broke below it at the weekly close before last. That failed to confirm the support break at the end of last week with Bitcoin closing back above it. Bitcoin is back below that again at the moment.

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Overthrowing Rising Wedges

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In my last post on 24th October I was looking at rising wedges on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM from the April lows and weighing the odds of these breaking down into a substantial retracement in the near future.

For SPX, QQQ and DIA I was looking at possible upside targets if they went higher, which they have, but not on IWM where I was just looking for a possible high retest, which we have not quite seen yet.

Looking at the rising wedge on SPX the rising wedge resistance has been hit, and I have redrawn the wedge support through the last low as this means that the wedge has expanded, and has therefore not yet broken down. The high at the time of writing is breaking slightly over the high quality rising wedge resistance and this may be a bearish overthrow.

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So Here We Are Again

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In my post on Monday 6th October I was looking at the negative divergences on SPX and QQQ, with daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals brewing on both of those. All of those fixed on Friday 10th October, with both RSI 5 sell signals also reaching target on that Friday.

In my next post on Tuesday 14th October I was noting that there were now daily RSI 14 sell signals fixed on SPX, QQQ, DIA and (weaker signal) IWM. I was saying then that was suggesting a larger retracement soon to reach those targets.

I was also looking at possible topping patterns forming on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM then and saying that those would likely break down or reject back up to the highs in what might then be the second highs on a series of double tops.

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Bull Market in Crypto Could Be Over

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In my last post on Tuesday 14th October I was looking at the double top that had just broken down on Bitcoin. I was leaning towards this rejecting back up to the highs along with equities, but that high retest has been playing out on equities without any meaningful participation so far from Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), or Ethereum (ETHUSD). Last week Bitcoin actually broke and closed below the weekly middle band, in what was a significant support break.

This is bearish and the odds of that double top on Bitcoin playing out have risen considerably. If that double top plays out then there will likely also be serious further support breaks on Solana and Ethereum of a kind that would suggest that the bull market may have already ended on both, and possibly all three. This is what I wrote at the end of my last post:

‘If Bitcoin does reach the double top target would the bull market be over? No, but it would increase the chance that it might be. I would still be leaning towards at least a retest of the all time high from there but that might be forming a double top that could end this bull market cycle. There would also likely be some serious technical damage done on Ethereum and Solana while that played out.’

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