Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Knock On Wood

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I was talking to a trader friend about resistance levels a few years ago and I remember him saying to me that the more often you knock on a door, the more likely it is to open. In effect what that means that however strong a resistance level is, and however often an index may fail there, if it keeps returning after each failure, then sooner or later it is likely to break up, and that may well be what we have been watching here on SPX.

We don’t have a confirmed break yet, but SPX closed May significantly over the monthly middle band, and so far today has been pushing through the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low. If that breaks and converts to support, then the path would be open for a possible retest of the all time high.

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Back At Major Resistance

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Well the bearish stats for Wednesday and Thursday this week did not deliver, which was remarkable yesterday as at the start of the day there were hourly sell signals fixed on all of ES, NQ, RTY & YM. That equities went up hard instead was an impressive show of strength, bringing SPX back up into a full test of key resistance at the monthly middle band, now at 4169.46, but not broken until there is a monthly close above it, and the main support/resistance trendline from the 2009 low.

That is still very strong resistance, but after the rejection back up here, and the very strong action over the last two days, I’m increasing the odds of a break above from 25% from 35%.

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